NHL · Friday, Oct 16

No validated markets here: every row below is experimental or insufficient.

• Pittsburgh Penguins @ Colorado AvalancheSat 1:10 AMGArturs SilovsvsMackenzie Blackwood

  PIT

  Pittsburgh PenguinsG Arturs Silovs

  ML3-3-1-22.9%·Away1-2-1-52.7%LWLLL

  ATS4-3+1.1%·Away2-2-11.2%LWWLL

  O/U4-3+11.5%·Away3-1+44.2%OUUOU

  Proj3.0

  Win39

  COL

  Colorado AvalancheG Mackenzie Blackwood

  ML4-2-1-11.1%·Home2-1-1-18.9%LWLWL

  ATS3-4-9.2%·Home2-2+7.3%LLLWL

  O/U4-3+14.5%·Home3-1+48.8%UUOOU

  Proj3.7

  Win61

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	PIT +175COL −215	PIT +157COL −157	+4.2 pp−4.2 pp	insufficient	σ 2.5 · n 5315 · book PIT 34.8% / COL 65.2%PIT insufficientCOL insufficient	8h
  Spread	PIT +1.5 @ −140COL −1.5 @ +115	PIT +0.7 · −166COL −0.7 · +166	+6.7 pp−6.7 pp	insufficient	σ 2.5 · n 5315 · book PIT 55.6% / COL 44.4%PIT weakCOL weak	8h
  Total	O 6.5 @ −120U 6.5 @ +100	O 6.66 · −109U 6.66 · +109	−0.1 pp+0.1 pp	insufficient	σ 2.3 · n 5315 · book O 52.2% / U 47.8%O weakU insufficient	8h

  • MLPIT +175→model PIT +157+4.2 pp
    COL −215→model COL −157−4.2 pp
    σ 2.5 · n 5315 · book PIT 34.8% / COL 65.2%PIT insufficientCOL insufficient
    insufficientage 8h
  • SpreadPIT +1.5 @ −140→model PIT +0.7 · −166+6.7 pp
    COL −1.5 @ +115→model COL −0.7 · +166−6.7 pp
    σ 2.5 · n 5315 · book PIT 55.6% / COL 44.4%PIT weakCOL weak
    insufficientage 8h
  • TotalO 6.5 @ −120→model O 6.66 · −109−0.1 pp
    U 6.5 @ +100→model U 6.66 · +109+0.1 pp
    σ 2.3 · n 5315 · book O 52.2% / U 47.8%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage 8h

  Open game →
• Boston Bruins @ Anaheim DucksSat 2:10 AMGJeremy SwaymanvsLukas Dostal

  BOS

  Boston BruinsG Jeremy Swayman

  ML5-2+40.0%·Away2-1+32.3%WWWLL

  ATS5-2+30.1%·Away2-1+27.7%WWWLL

  O/U4-3+7.2%·Away2-1+33.9%OOOUU

  Proj3.1

  Win48

  ANA

  Anaheim DucksG Lukas Dostal

  ML4-2+28.8%·Home1-2-42.7%LWWLW

  ATS4-2+17.1%·Home1-2-40.4%LWWLW

  O/U2-4-32.9%·Home1-2-32.4%UUUOU

  Proj3.2

  Win52

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	BOS −110ANA −110	BOS +107ANA −107	−1.6 pp+1.6 pp	insufficient	σ 2.5 · n 5315 · book BOS 50.0% / ANA 50.0%BOS insufficientANA insufficient	8h
  Spread	BOS −1.5 @ +200ANA +1.5 @ −255	BOS +0.08 · +274ANA −0.08 · −274	−5.0 pp+5.0 pp	insufficient	σ 2.5 · n 5315 · book BOS 31.7% / ANA 68.3%BOS weakANA weak	8h
  Total	O 6.5 @ +105U 6.5 @ −125	O 6.36 · +111U 6.36 · −111	+0.7 pp−0.7 pp	insufficient	σ 2.3 · n 5315 · book O 46.8% / U 53.3%O weakU insufficient	8h

  • MLBOS −110→model BOS +107−1.6 pp
    ANA −110→model ANA −107+1.6 pp
    σ 2.5 · n 5315 · book BOS 50.0% / ANA 50.0%BOS insufficientANA insufficient
    insufficientage 8h
  • SpreadBOS −1.5 @ +200→model BOS +0.08 · +274−5.0 pp
    ANA +1.5 @ −255→model ANA −0.08 · −274+5.0 pp
    σ 2.5 · n 5315 · book BOS 31.7% / ANA 68.3%BOS weakANA weak
    insufficientage 8h
  • TotalO 6.5 @ +105→model O 6.36 · +111+0.7 pp
    U 6.5 @ −125→model U 6.36 · −111−0.7 pp
    σ 2.3 · n 5315 · book O 46.8% / U 53.3%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage 8h

  Open game →