‹2026 · Week 5›

NFL · Week 5

15 gamesodds 8 d old

Season picks

StatusSort

No validated markets here: every row below is experimental or insufficient.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas CowboysFri 12:15 AM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ML0-4-100.0%SOS 30th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS0-3-1-75.2%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U2-2-5.2%Away1-0+92.6%

DOGML 0-3ATS 0-2-1

Proj23.0

Win34

Dallas Cowboys

ML2-2-6.5%SOS 18th-hardestHome1-10.0%

ATS2-1-1+21.5%Home1-0-1+45.0%

O/U3-1+43.8%Home2-0+87.7%

FAVML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj28.4

Win66

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	TAM +360DAL −470	TAM +191DAL −191	+13.5 pp−13.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TAM 20.9% / DAL 79.1%TAM weakDAL insufficient	8d
Spread	TAM +8.5 @ −105DAL −8.5 @ −115	TAM +5.34 · −146DAL −5.34 · +146	+10.5 pp−10.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TAM 48.9% / DAL 51.1%TAM weakDAL insufficient	8d
Total	O 48.5 @ −112U 48.5 @ −108	O 51.36 · −140U 51.36 · +140	+7.9 pp−7.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	8d

MLTAM +360model TAM +191+13.5 pp
DAL −470model DAL −191−13.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TAM 20.9% / DAL 79.1%TAM weakDAL insufficient
insufficientage 8d
SpreadTAM +8.5 @ −105model TAM +5.34 · −146+10.5 pp
DAL −8.5 @ −115model DAL −5.34 · +146−10.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TAM 48.9% / DAL 51.1%TAM weakDAL insufficient
insufficientage 8d
TotalO 48.5 @ −112model O 51.36 · −140+7.9 pp
U 48.5 @ −108model U 51.36 · +140−7.9 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 8d

Open game

Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville JaguarsSun 1:30 PM

Philadelphia Eagles

ML2-2-10.5%SOS 28th-hardestAway1-1-17.8%

ATS0-4-100.0%Away0-2-100.0%

O/U3-1+42.7%Away1-1-4.5%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj17.7

Win25

Jacksonville Jaguars

ML3-1+27.2%SOS 12th-hardestHome2-0+32.8%

ATS3-1+47.7%Home2-0+93.5%

O/U1-3-53.8%Home1-1-6.9%

FAVML 2-0ATS 2-0

Proj26.8

Win75

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	PHI +300JAC −380	PHI +303JAC −303	+0.8 pp−0.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 24.0% / JAC 76.0%PHI insufficientJAC insufficient	5d
Spread	PHI +7.5 @ +100JAC −7.5 @ −120	PHI +9.03 · +120JAC −9.03 · −120	−2.4 pp+2.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 47.8% / JAC 52.2%PHI insufficientJAC insufficient	5d
Total	O 41.5 @ −108U 41.5 @ −112	O 44.51 · −142U 44.51 · +142	+9.1 pp−9.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLPHI +300model PHI +303+0.8 pp
JAC −380model JAC −303−0.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 24.0% / JAC 76.0%PHI insufficientJAC insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadPHI +7.5 @ +100model PHI +9.03 · +120−2.4 pp
JAC −7.5 @ −120model JAC −9.03 · −120+2.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 47.8% / JAC 52.2%PHI insufficientJAC insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 41.5 @ −108model O 44.51 · −142+9.1 pp
U 41.5 @ −112model U 44.51 · +142−9.1 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans SaintsSun 5:00 PM

Minnesota Vikings

ML4-0+54.5%SOS 25th-hardestAway2-0+130.2%

ATS3-1+46.4%Away2-0+95.2%

O/U1-3-52.5%Away0-2-100.0%

FAVML 3-0ATS 2-1

Proj24.5

Win59

New Orleans Saints

ML1-3-24.0%SOS 11th-hardestHome0-2-100.0%

ATS2-2-2.3%Home0-2-100.0%

O/U3-1+41.8%Home2-0+85.8%

DOGML 1-1ATS 2-0

Proj21.3

Win41

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	MIN −130NEW +110	MIN −146NEW +146	+5.2 pp−5.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 54.3% / NEW 45.7%MIN weakNEW insufficient	5d
Spread	MIN −2.5 @ +100NEW +2.5 @ −120	MIN −3.17 · −108NEW +3.17 · +108	+4.2 pp−4.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 47.8% / NEW 52.2%MIN weakNEW insufficient	5d
Total	O 41.5 @ −108U 41.5 @ −112	O 45.85 · −167U 45.85 · +167	+12.9 pp−12.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLMIN −130model MIN −146+5.2 pp
NEW +110model NEW +146−5.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 54.3% / NEW 45.7%MIN weakNEW insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadMIN −2.5 @ +100model MIN −3.17 · −108+4.2 pp
NEW +2.5 @ −120model NEW +3.17 · +108−4.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 47.8% / NEW 52.2%MIN weakNEW insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 41.5 @ −108model O 45.85 · −167+12.9 pp
U 41.5 @ −112model U 45.85 · +167−12.9 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay PackersSun 5:00 PM

Chicago Bears

ML3-1+20.9%SOS 19th-hardestAway1-0+57.1%

ATS3-1+41.9%Away1-0+83.3%

O/U1-3-51.2%Away1-0+90.9%

FAVML 2-1ATS 2-1

Proj26.3

Win67

Green Bay Packers

ML2-2-20.5%SOS 32nd-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS0-3-1-75.3%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-2-6.2%Home1-0+84.8%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj20.3

Win33

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	CHI −125GRE +105	CHI −207GRE +207	+14.2 pp−14.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CHI 53.3% / GRE 46.8%CHI weakGRE insufficient	5d
Spread	CHI −1.5 @ −112GRE +1.5 @ −108	CHI −5.99 · −172GRE +5.99 · +172	+12.8 pp−12.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CHI 50.4% / GRE 49.6%CHI weakGRE insufficient	5d
Total	O 47.5 @ −102U 47.5 @ −118	O 46.65 · +111U 46.65 · −111	−0.8 pp+0.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.3% / U 51.7%O insufficientU insufficient	5d

MLCHI −125model CHI −207+14.2 pp
GRE +105model GRE +207−14.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CHI 53.3% / GRE 46.8%CHI weakGRE insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadCHI −1.5 @ −112model CHI −5.99 · −172+12.8 pp
GRE +1.5 @ −108model GRE +5.99 · +172−12.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CHI 50.4% / GRE 49.6%CHI weakGRE insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 47.5 @ −102model O 46.65 · +111−0.8 pp
U 47.5 @ −118model U 46.65 · −111+0.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.3% / U 51.7%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

New York Giants @ Washington CommandersSun 5:00 PM

New York Giants

ML3-1+58.1%SOS 31st-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS3-1+44.5%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U1-3-52.0%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 2-1ATS 2-1

Proj23.0

Win48

Washington Commanders

ML1-3+5.0%SOS 6th-hardestHome1-1+110.0%

ATS2-2-0.5%Home1-1-0.9%

O/U3-1+44.5%Home1-1-2.4%

Proj23.8

Win52

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	NEW +145WAS −175	NEW +109WAS −109	+8.8 pp−8.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 39.1% / WAS 60.9%NEW weakWAS insufficient	5d
Spread	NEW +3.5 @ −108WAS −3.5 @ −112	NEW +0.71 · −140WAS −0.71 · +140	+8.7 pp−8.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 49.6% / WAS 50.4%NEW weakWAS insufficient	5d
Total	O 41.5 @ −115U 41.5 @ −105	O 46.79 · −186U 46.79 · +186	+14.0 pp−14.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLNEW +145model NEW +109+8.8 pp
WAS −175model WAS −109−8.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 39.1% / WAS 60.9%NEW weakWAS insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadNEW +3.5 @ −108model NEW +0.71 · −140+8.7 pp
WAS −3.5 @ −112model WAS −0.71 · +140−8.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 49.6% / WAS 50.4%NEW weakWAS insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 41.5 @ −115model O 46.79 · −186+14.0 pp
U 41.5 @ −105model U 46.79 · +186−14.0 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Cleveland Browns @ New York JetsSun 5:00 PM

Cleveland Browns

ML3-1+119.5%SOS 13th-hardestAway1-1+115.0%

ATS3-1+44.3%Away1-1-3.6%

O/U3-1+43.0%Away2-0+95.2%

DOGML 3-1ATS 3-1

Proj21.2

Win51

New York Jets

ML1-3-49.8%SOS 22nd-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS2-2-1.9%Home1-0+92.6%

O/U1-3-51.1%Home0-1-100.0%

Proj21.0

Win49

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	CLE +114NEW −135	CLE −102NEW +102	+5.7 pp−5.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 44.9% / NEW 55.1%CLE weakNEW insufficient	5d
Spread	CLE +2.5 @ −110NEW −2.5 @ −110	CLE −0.2 · −138NEW +0.2 · +138	+8.0 pp−8.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 50.0% / NEW 50.0%CLE weakNEW insufficient	5d
Total	O 39.5 @ −112U 39.5 @ −108	O 42.2 · −137U 42.2 · +137	+7.4 pp−7.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLCLE +114model CLE −102+5.7 pp
NEW −135model NEW +102−5.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 44.9% / NEW 55.1%CLE weakNEW insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadCLE +2.5 @ −110model CLE −0.2 · −138+8.0 pp
NEW −2.5 @ −110model NEW +0.2 · +138−8.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 50.0% / NEW 50.0%CLE weakNEW insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 39.5 @ −112model O 42.2 · −137+7.4 pp
U 39.5 @ −108model U 42.2 · +137−7.4 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England PatriotsSun 5:00 PM

Las Vegas Raiders

ML3-1+87.2%SOS 17th-hardestAway2-0+207.0%

ATS4-0+91.8%Away2-0+92.7%

O/U2-2-3.4%Away1-1-4.4%

DOGML 2-1ATS 3-0

Proj21.3

Win44

New England Patriots

ML2-2+26.4%SOS 2nd-hardestHome1-0+43.5%

ATS2-1-1+18.3%Home1-0+89.3%

O/U1-3-52.3%Home0-1-100.0%

FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj23.3

Win56

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	LAS +160NEW −192	LAS +126NEW −126	+7.3 pp−7.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 36.9% / NEW 63.1%LAS weakNEW insufficient	5d
Spread	LAS +3.5 @ −108NEW −3.5 @ −112	LAS +1.93 · −121NEW −1.93 · +121	+5.1 pp−5.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 49.6% / NEW 50.4%LAS weakNEW insufficient	5d
Total	O 45.5 @ −105U 45.5 @ −115	O 44.59 · +111U 44.59 · −111	−1.6 pp+1.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU insufficient	5d

MLLAS +160model LAS +126+7.3 pp
NEW −192model NEW −126−7.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 36.9% / NEW 63.1%LAS weakNEW insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadLAS +3.5 @ −108model LAS +1.93 · −121+5.1 pp
NEW −3.5 @ −112model NEW −1.93 · +121−5.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 49.6% / NEW 50.4%LAS weakNEW insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 45.5 @ −105model O 44.59 · +111−1.6 pp
U 45.5 @ −115model U 44.59 · −111+1.6 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Houston Texans @ Tennessee TitansSun 5:00 PM

Houston Texans

ML0-4-100.0%SOS 12th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS0-4-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U2-2-5.0%Away0-1-100.0%

FAVML 0-3ATS 0-3

Proj21.7

Win56

Tennessee Titans

ML0-4-100.0%SOS 30th-hardestHome0-2-100.0%

ATS2-2-3.5%Home1-1-2.4%

O/U1-3-51.7%Home1-1-5.4%

DOGML 0-3ATS 2-1

Proj19.8

Win44

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	HOU −345TEN +275	HOU −126TEN +126	−18.6 pp+18.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book HOU 74.4% / TEN 25.6%HOU insufficientTEN weak	5d
Spread	HOU −7 @ −108TEN +7 @ −112	HOU −1.94 · +184TEN +1.94 · −184	−14.4 pp+14.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book HOU 49.6% / TEN 50.4%HOU insufficientTEN weak	5d
Total	O 37.5 @ −115U 37.5 @ −105	O 41.46 · −159U 41.46 · +159	+10.3 pp−10.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLHOU −345model HOU −126−18.6 pp
TEN +275model TEN +126+18.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book HOU 74.4% / TEN 25.6%HOU insufficientTEN weak
insufficientage 5d
SpreadHOU −7 @ −108model HOU −1.94 · +184−14.4 pp
TEN +7 @ −112model TEN +1.94 · −184+14.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book HOU 49.6% / TEN 50.4%HOU insufficientTEN weak
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 37.5 @ −115model O 41.46 · −159+10.3 pp
U 37.5 @ −105model U 41.46 · +159−10.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami DolphinsSun 5:00 PM

Cincinnati Bengals

ML2-2-17.2%SOS 5th-hardestAway1-1-23.3%

ATS2-2-5.4%Away1-1-4.4%

O/U2-2-4.5%Away1-1-4.5%

FAVML 1-2ATS 1-2

Proj25.2

Win66

Miami Dolphins

ML0-4-100.0%SOS 4th-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS1-3-51.1%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U1-3-50.8%Home0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-4ATS 1-3

Proj19.7

Win34

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	CIN −355MIA +280	CIN −195MIA +195	−8.7 pp+8.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 74.8% / MIA 25.2%CIN insufficientMIA weak	5d
Spread	CIN −7 @ −112MIA +7 @ −108	CIN −5.5 · +120MIA +5.5 · −120	−4.9 pp+4.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 50.4% / MIA 49.6%CIN insufficientMIA weak	5d
Total	O 43.5 @ −115U 43.5 @ −105	O 44.9 · −118U 44.9 · +118	+3.0 pp−3.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU insufficient	5d

MLCIN −355model CIN −195−8.7 pp
MIA +280model MIA +195+8.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 74.8% / MIA 25.2%CIN insufficientMIA weak
insufficientage 5d
SpreadCIN −7 @ −112model CIN −5.5 · +120−4.9 pp
MIA +7 @ −108model MIA +5.5 · −120+4.9 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 50.4% / MIA 49.6%CIN insufficientMIA weak
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 43.5 @ −115model O 44.9 · −118+3.0 pp
U 43.5 @ −105model U 44.9 · +118−3.0 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh SteelersSun 5:00 PM

Indianapolis Colts

ML2-2+0.4%SOS 7th-hardestAway1-10.0%

ATS3-1+39.3%Away2-0+87.0%

O/U2-2-3.9%Away1-1-2.4%

DOGML 1-2ATS 2-1

Proj24.1

Win52

Pittsburgh Steelers

ML2-2+1.9%SOS 10th-hardestHome2-0+67.5%

ATS2-2-6.3%Home2-0+90.9%

O/U2-2-4.6%Home1-1-5.4%

FAVML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj23.5

Win48

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	IND +124PIT −148	IND −109PIT +109	+9.3 pp−9.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 42.8% / PIT 57.2%IND weakPIT insufficient	5d
Spread	IND +2.5 @ +100PIT −2.5 @ −120	IND −0.69 · −147PIT +0.69 · +147	+11.7 pp−11.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 47.8% / PIT 52.2%IND weakPIT insufficient	5d
Total	O 43.5 @ −108U 43.5 @ −112	O 47.61 · −162U 47.61 · +162	+12.3 pp−12.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLIND +124model IND −109+9.3 pp
PIT −148model PIT +109−9.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 42.8% / PIT 57.2%IND weakPIT insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadIND +2.5 @ +100model IND −0.69 · −147+11.7 pp
PIT −2.5 @ −120model PIT +0.69 · +147−11.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 47.8% / PIT 52.2%IND weakPIT insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 43.5 @ −108model O 47.61 · −162+12.3 pp
U 43.5 @ −112model U 47.61 · +162−12.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles ChargersSun 8:05 PM

Denver Broncos

ML2-2+2.2%SOS 1st-hardestAway0-2-100.0%

ATS2-2-7.0%Away0-2-100.0%

O/U1-3-50.6%Away0-2-100.0%

FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj22.1

Win51

Los Angeles Chargers

ML0-4-100.0%SOS 6th-hardestHome0-2-100.0%

ATS0-3-1-76.2%Home0-2-100.0%

O/U1-3-50.2%Home0-2-100.0%

DOGML 0-2ATS 0-1-1

Proj21.6

Win49

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	DEN −192LOS +160	DEN −105LOS +105	−11.8 pp+11.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 63.1% / LOS 36.9%DEN insufficientLOS weak	5d
Spread	DEN −3.5 @ −108LOS +3.5 @ −112	DEN −0.43 · +145LOS +0.43 · −145	−8.7 pp+8.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 49.6% / LOS 50.4%DEN insufficientLOS weak	5d
Total	O 41.5 @ −115U 41.5 @ −105	O 43.67 · −129U 43.67 · +129	+5.3 pp−5.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLDEN −192model DEN −105−11.8 pp
LOS +160model LOS +105+11.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 63.1% / LOS 36.9%DEN insufficientLOS weak
insufficientage 5d
SpreadDEN −3.5 @ −108model DEN −0.43 · +145−8.7 pp
LOS +3.5 @ −112model LOS +0.43 · −145+8.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 49.6% / LOS 50.4%DEN insufficientLOS weak
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 41.5 @ −115model O 43.67 · −129+5.3 pp
U 41.5 @ −105model U 43.67 · +129−5.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle SeahawksSun 8:25 PM

San Francisco 49ers

ML4-0+29.1%SOS 16th-hardestAway1-0+164.0%

ATS3-1+45.7%Away1-0+98.0%

O/U2-2-3.0%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj23.9

Win47

Seattle Seahawks

ML3-1-9.6%SOS 20th-hardestHome2-0+38.0%

ATS1-1-2-1.1%Home0-0-20.0%

O/U2-2-5.1%Home1-1-2.2%

FAVML 3-1ATS 1-1-2

Proj24.9

Win53

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	SAN +140SEA −166	SAN +113SEA −113	+6.8 pp−6.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SAN 40.0% / SEA 60.0%SAN weakSEA insufficient	5d
Spread	SAN +3 @ −105SEA −3 @ −115	SAN +1.04 · −127SEA −1.04 · +127	+7.0 pp−7.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SAN 48.9% / SEA 51.1%SAN weakSEA insufficient	5d
Total	O 45.5 @ −115U 45.5 @ −105	O 48.76 · −147U 48.76 · +147	+8.4 pp−8.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLSAN +140model SAN +113+6.8 pp
SEA −166model SEA −113−6.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SAN 40.0% / SEA 60.0%SAN weakSEA insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadSAN +3 @ −105model SAN +1.04 · −127+7.0 pp
SEA −3 @ −115model SEA −1.04 · +127−7.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SAN 48.9% / SEA 51.1%SAN weakSEA insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 45.5 @ −115model O 48.76 · −147+8.4 pp
U 45.5 @ −105model U 48.76 · +147−8.4 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Detroit Lions @ Arizona CardinalsSun 8:25 PM

Detroit Lions

ML2-2-10.0%SOS 19th-hardestAway0-2-100.0%

ATS1-3-52.2%Away0-2-100.0%

O/U4-0+89.1%Away2-0+88.9%

FAVML 2-1ATS 1-2

Proj27.8

Win56

Arizona Cardinals

ML1-3+12.6%SOS 2nd-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS2-2-2.8%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-2-5.3%Home0-1-100.0%

DOGML 1-2ATS 2-1

Proj25.7

Win44

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	DET −250ARI +205	DET −129ARI +129	−12.2 pp+12.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 68.5% / ARI 31.5%DET insufficientARI weak	5d
Spread	DET −5.5 @ −108ARI +5.5 @ −112	DET −2.1 · +151ARI +2.1 · −151	−9.7 pp+9.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 49.6% / ARI 50.4%DET insufficientARI weak	5d
Total	O 54.5 @ −115U 54.5 @ −105	O 53.52 · +112U 53.52 · −112	−3.9 pp+3.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU insufficient	5d

MLDET −250model DET −129−12.2 pp
ARI +205model ARI +129+12.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 68.5% / ARI 31.5%DET insufficientARI weak
insufficientage 5d
SpreadDET −5.5 @ −108model DET −2.1 · +151−9.7 pp
ARI +5.5 @ −112model ARI +2.1 · −151+9.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 49.6% / ARI 50.4%DET insufficientARI weak
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 54.5 @ −115model O 53.52 · +112−3.9 pp
U 54.5 @ −105model U 53.52 · −112+3.9 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta FalconsMon 12:20 AM

Baltimore Ravens

ML3-1-5.3%SOS 27th-hardestAway2-0+59.4%

ATS1-2-1-26.6%Away1-0-1+45.9%

O/U2-2-3.4%Away2-0+89.7%

Proj25.9

Win55

Atlanta Falcons

ML2-2+25.5%SOS 30th-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS2-2-2.3%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-2-4.8%Home0-1-100.0%

Proj24.1

Win45

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	BAL +145ATL −175	BAL −125ATL +125	+16.4 pp−16.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 39.1% / ATL 60.9%BAL weakATL insufficient	5d
Spread	BAL +3.5 @ −118ATL −3.5 @ −102	BAL −1.82 · −190ATL +1.82 · +190	+13.8 pp−13.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 51.7% / ATL 48.3%BAL weakATL insufficient	5d
Total	O 43.5 @ −115U 43.5 @ −105	O 50.02 · −216U 50.02 · +216	+17.3 pp−17.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient	5d

MLBAL +145model BAL −125+16.4 pp
ATL −175model ATL +125−16.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 39.1% / ATL 60.9%BAL weakATL insufficient
insufficientage 5d
SpreadBAL +3.5 @ −118model BAL −1.82 · −190+13.8 pp
ATL −3.5 @ −102model ATL +1.82 · +190−13.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 51.7% / ATL 48.3%BAL weakATL insufficient
insufficientage 5d
TotalO 43.5 @ −115model O 50.02 · −216+17.3 pp
U 43.5 @ −105model U 50.02 · +216−17.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 5d

Open game

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles RamsTue 12:15 AM

Buffalo Bills

ML3-1+0.2%SOS 9th-hardestAway1-0+89.3%

ATS3-1+45.4%Away1-0+92.6%

O/U3-1+44.0%Away1-0+90.9%

Proj25.9

Win50

Los Angeles Rams

ML2-2-15.5%SOS 16th-hardestHome1-1-19.8%

ATS2-2-6.5%Home1-1-7.7%

O/U2-2-4.0%Home0-2-100.0%

FAVML 2-2ATS 2-2

Proj25.9

Win50

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	BUF +145LOS −175	BUF −100LOS +100	+11.0 pp−11.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BUF 39.1% / LOS 60.9%BUF weakLOS insufficient	4d
Spread	BUF +3.5 @ −118LOS −3.5 @ −102	BUF −0.02 · −153LOS +0.02 · +153	+8.7 pp−8.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BUF 51.7% / LOS 48.3%BUF weakLOS insufficient	4d
Total	O 54.5 @ −118U 54.5 @ −102	O 51.74 · +138U 51.74 · −138	−9.8 pp+9.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O insufficientU insufficient	4d

MLBUF +145model BUF −100+11.0 pp
LOS −175model LOS +100−11.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BUF 39.1% / LOS 60.9%BUF weakLOS insufficient
insufficientage 4d
SpreadBUF +3.5 @ −118model BUF −0.02 · −153+8.7 pp
LOS −3.5 @ −102model LOS +0.02 · +153−8.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BUF 51.7% / LOS 48.3%BUF weakLOS insufficient
insufficientage 4d
TotalO 54.5 @ −118model O 51.74 · +138−9.8 pp
U 54.5 @ −102model U 51.74 · −138+9.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 4d

Open game