‹2026 · Week 4›

NFL · Week 4

16 gamesodds 15 d old

Season picks

StatusSort

No validated markets here: every row below is experimental or insufficient.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland BrownsFri 12:15 AM

Pittsburgh Steelers

ML2-1+33.0%SOS 7th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS2-1+28.1%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U1-2-36.1%Away0-1-100.0%

FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj21.1

Win53

Cleveland Browns

ML2-1+118.0%SOS 11th-hardestHome1-0+124.0%

ATS2-1+27.6%Home1-0+90.9%

O/U2-1+26.1%Home0-1-100.0%

DOGML 2-1ATS 2-1

Proj20.0

Win47

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	PIT −148CLE +124	PIT −114CLE +114	−4.0 pp+4.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PIT 57.2% / CLE 42.8%PIT insufficientCLE insufficient	15d
Spread	PIT −2.5 @ −120CLE +2.5 @ +100	PIT −1.09 · +118CLE +1.09 · −118	−6.4 pp+6.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PIT 52.2% / CLE 47.8%PIT insufficientCLE weak	15d
Total	O 38.5 @ −105U 38.5 @ −115	O 41.15 · −136U 41.15 · +136	+8.8 pp−8.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	15d

MLPIT −148model PIT −114−4.0 pp
CLE +124model CLE +114+4.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PIT 57.2% / CLE 42.8%PIT insufficientCLE insufficient
insufficientage 15d
SpreadPIT −2.5 @ −120model PIT −1.09 · +118−6.4 pp
CLE +2.5 @ +100model CLE +1.09 · −118+6.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PIT 52.2% / CLE 47.8%PIT insufficientCLE weak
insufficientage 15d
TotalO 38.5 @ −105model O 41.15 · −136+8.8 pp
U 38.5 @ −115model U 41.15 · +136−8.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 15d

Open game

Indianapolis Colts @ Washington CommandersSun 1:30 PM

Indianapolis Colts

ML1-2-32.7%SOS 5th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS2-1+23.5%Away1-0+89.3%

O/U2-1+26.8%Away1-0+98.0%

Proj26.3

Win50

Washington Commanders

ML1-2+40.0%SOS 4th-hardestHome1-0+320.0%

ATS2-1+30.8%Home1-0+87.0%

O/U3-0+90.1%Home1-0+92.6%

DOGML 1-2ATS 2-1

Proj26.3

Win50

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	IND −218WAS +180	IND +100WAS −100	−15.9 pp+15.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 65.8% / WAS 34.3%IND insufficientWAS weak	12d
Spread	IND −4.5 @ −118WAS +4.5 @ −102	IND +0.05 · +173WAS −0.05 · −173	−15.1 pp+15.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 51.7% / WAS 48.3%IND insufficientWAS weak	12d
Total	O 46.5 @ −105U 46.5 @ −115	O 52.59 · −205U 52.59 · +205	+18.3 pp−18.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	12d

MLIND −218model IND +100−15.9 pp
WAS +180model WAS −100+15.9 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 65.8% / WAS 34.3%IND insufficientWAS weak
insufficientage 12d
SpreadIND −4.5 @ −118model IND +0.05 · +173−15.1 pp
WAS +4.5 @ −102model WAS −0.05 · −173+15.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 51.7% / WAS 48.3%IND insufficientWAS weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 46.5 @ −105model O 52.59 · −205+18.3 pp
U 46.5 @ −115model U 52.59 · +205−18.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

New England Patriots @ Buffalo BillsSun 5:00 PM

New England Patriots

ML1-2-23.3%SOS 2nd-hardestAway0-2-100.0%

ATS1-1-1-5.4%Away0-1-1-53.6%

O/U0-3-100.0%Away0-2-100.0%

DOGML 0-2ATS 0-1-1

Proj20.5

Win32

Buffalo Bills

ML3-0+44.4%SOS 18th-hardestHome2-0+35.5%

ATS3-0+92.3%Home2-0+92.2%

O/U2-1+28.4%Home1-1-2.2%

FAVML 3-0ATS 3-0

Proj26.8

Win68

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	NEW +240BUF −298	NEW +215BUF −215	+3.5 pp−3.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 28.2% / BUF 71.8%NEW insufficientBUF insufficient	12d
Spread	NEW +7 @ −115BUF −7 @ −105	NEW +6.32 · −109BUF −6.32 · +109	+1.0 pp−1.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 51.1% / BUF 48.9%NEW insufficientBUF insufficient	12d
Total	O 49.5 @ −108U 49.5 @ −112	O 47.26 · +130U 47.26 · −130	−6.1 pp+6.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU weak	12d

MLNEW +240model NEW +215+3.5 pp
BUF −298model BUF −215−3.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 28.2% / BUF 71.8%NEW insufficientBUF insufficient
insufficientage 12d
SpreadNEW +7 @ −115model NEW +6.32 · −109+1.0 pp
BUF −7 @ −105model BUF −6.32 · +109−1.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 51.1% / BUF 48.9%NEW insufficientBUF insufficient
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 49.5 @ −108model O 47.26 · +130−6.1 pp
U 49.5 @ −112model U 47.26 · −130+6.1 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU weak
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore RavensSun 5:00 PM

Tennessee Titans

ML0-3-100.0%SOS 31st-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS1-2-36.3%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U1-2-36.5%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-2ATS 1-1

Proj17.5

Win22

Baltimore Ravens

ML2-1-24.6%SOS 16th-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS1-1-1-1.6%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-1+27.0%Home0-1-100.0%

FAVML 2-1ATS 1-1-1

Proj27.6

Win78

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	TEN +500BAL −700	TEN +350BAL −350	+6.2 pp−6.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TEN 16.0% / BAL 84.0%TEN weakBAL insufficient	12d
Spread	TEN +11.5 @ −110BAL −11.5 @ −110	TEN +10.16 · −117BAL −10.16 · +117	+4.0 pp−4.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TEN 50.0% / BAL 50.0%TEN weakBAL insufficient	12d
Total	O 42.5 @ −105U 42.5 @ −115	O 45.14 · −136U 45.14 · +136	+8.8 pp−8.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	12d

MLTEN +500model TEN +350+6.2 pp
BAL −700model BAL −350−6.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TEN 16.0% / BAL 84.0%TEN weakBAL insufficient
insufficientage 12d
SpreadTEN +11.5 @ −110model TEN +10.16 · −117+4.0 pp
BAL −11.5 @ −110model BAL −10.16 · +117−4.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TEN 50.0% / BAL 50.0%TEN weakBAL insufficient
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 42.5 @ −105model O 45.14 · −136+8.8 pp
U 42.5 @ −115model U 45.14 · +136−8.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Arizona Cardinals @ New York GiantsSun 5:00 PM

Arizona Cardinals

ML1-2+63.3%SOS 1st-hardestAway1-1+145.0%

ATS2-1+31.6%Away2-0+92.2%

O/U1-2-37.5%Away1-1-2.4%

Proj20.9

Win45

New York Giants

ML2-1+41.2%SOS 28th-hardestHome2-0+102.6%

ATS2-1+28.8%Home2-0+88.9%

O/U0-3-100.0%Home0-2-100.0%

DOGML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj22.5

Win55

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	ARI −135NEW +114	ARI +121NEW −121	−9.9 pp+9.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 55.1% / NEW 44.9%ARI insufficientNEW weak	12d
Spread	ARI −2.5 @ −112NEW +2.5 @ −108	ARI +1.58 · +164NEW −1.58 · −164	−12.5 pp+12.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 50.4% / NEW 49.6%ARI insufficientNEW weak	12d
Total	O 44.5 @ −108U 44.5 @ −112	O 43.48 · +113U 43.48 · −113	−2.5 pp+2.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient	12d

MLARI −135model ARI +121−9.9 pp
NEW +114model NEW −121+9.9 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 55.1% / NEW 44.9%ARI insufficientNEW weak
insufficientage 12d
SpreadARI −2.5 @ −112model ARI +1.58 · +164−12.5 pp
NEW +2.5 @ −108model NEW −1.58 · −164+12.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 50.4% / NEW 49.6%ARI insufficientNEW weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 44.5 @ −108model O 43.48 · +113−2.5 pp
U 44.5 @ −112model U 43.48 · −113+2.5 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun 5:00 PM

Green Bay Packers

ML1-2-45.6%SOS 32nd-hardestAway1-10.0%

ATS0-3-100.0%Away0-2-100.0%

O/U2-1+27.0%Away1-1-4.7%

FAVML 1-1ATS 0-2

Proj22.4

Win43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ML0-3-100.0%SOS 22nd-hardestHome0-2-100.0%

ATS0-3-100.0%Home0-2-100.0%

O/U2-1+29.6%Home1-1-2.4%

DOGML 0-2ATS 0-2

Proj24.6

Win57

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	GRE −170TAM +142	GRE +130TAM −130	−17.0 pp+17.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 60.4% / TAM 39.6%GRE insufficientTAM weak	12d
Spread	GRE −3 @ −112TAM +3 @ −108	GRE +2.21 · +188TAM −2.21 · −188	−15.7 pp+15.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 50.4% / TAM 49.6%GRE insufficientTAM weak	12d
Total	O 38.5 @ −118U 38.5 @ −102	O 47.07 · −278U 47.07 · +278	+21.8 pp−21.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O weakU insufficient	12d

MLGRE −170model GRE +130−17.0 pp
TAM +142model TAM −130+17.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 60.4% / TAM 39.6%GRE insufficientTAM weak
insufficientage 12d
SpreadGRE −3 @ −112model GRE +2.21 · +188−15.7 pp
TAM +3 @ −108model TAM −2.21 · −188+15.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 50.4% / TAM 49.6%GRE insufficientTAM weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 38.5 @ −118model O 47.07 · −278+21.8 pp
U 38.5 @ −102model U 47.07 · +278−21.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

New York Jets @ Chicago BearsSun 5:00 PM

New York Jets

ML1-2-33.1%SOS 29th-hardestAway1-10.0%

ATS2-1+31.0%Away1-10.0%

O/U1-2-36.5%Away1-1-5.4%

DOGML 1-2ATS 2-1

Proj19.2

Win25

Chicago Bears

ML2-1+8.5%SOS 13th-hardestHome1-1-18.2%

ATS2-1+26.3%Home1-1-4.5%

O/U1-2-36.4%Home0-2-100.0%

FAVML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj28.3

Win75

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	NEW +154CHI −185	NEW +307CHI −307	−13.2 pp+13.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 37.8% / CHI 62.3%NEW insufficientCHI weak	12d
Spread	NEW +3.5 @ −108CHI −3.5 @ −112	NEW +9.14 · +198CHI −9.14 · −198	−16.0 pp+16.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 49.6% / CHI 50.4%NEW insufficientCHI weak	12d
Total	O 43.5 @ +100U 43.5 @ −120	O 47.5 · −160U 47.5 · +160	+13.7 pp−13.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 47.8% / U 52.2%O weakU insufficient	12d

MLNEW +154model NEW +307−13.2 pp
CHI −185model CHI −307+13.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 37.8% / CHI 62.3%NEW insufficientCHI weak
insufficientage 12d
SpreadNEW +3.5 @ −108model NEW +9.14 · +198−16.0 pp
CHI −3.5 @ −112model CHI −9.14 · −198+16.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 49.6% / CHI 50.4%NEW insufficientCHI weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 43.5 @ +100model O 47.5 · −160+13.7 pp
U 43.5 @ −120model U 47.5 · +160−13.7 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 47.8% / U 52.2%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia EaglesSun 5:00 PM

Los Angeles Rams

ML1-2-36.4%SOS 8th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS1-2-37.7%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U1-2-35.1%Away1-0+84.8%

FAVML 1-2ATS 1-2

Proj23.2

Win53

Philadelphia Eagles

ML2-1+1.0%SOS 30th-hardestHome1-0+38.8%

ATS0-3-100.0%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-1+27.5%Home1-0+95.2%

Proj22.3

Win47

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	LOS −198PHI +164	LOS −111PHI +111	−11.1 pp+11.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 63.7% / PHI 36.3%LOS insufficientPHI weak	12d
Spread	LOS −3.5 @ −118PHI +3.5 @ −102	LOS −0.86 · +137PHI +0.86 · −137	−9.6 pp+9.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 51.7% / PHI 48.3%LOS insufficientPHI weak	12d
Total	O 42.5 @ −118U 42.5 @ −102	O 45.46 · −141U 45.46 · +141	+6.8 pp−6.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O weakU insufficient	12d

MLLOS −198model LOS −111−11.1 pp
PHI +164model PHI +111+11.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 63.7% / PHI 36.3%LOS insufficientPHI weak
insufficientage 12d
SpreadLOS −3.5 @ −118model LOS −0.86 · +137−9.6 pp
PHI +3.5 @ −102model PHI +0.86 · −137+9.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 51.7% / PHI 48.3%LOS insufficientPHI weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 42.5 @ −118model O 45.46 · −141+6.8 pp
U 42.5 @ −102model U 45.46 · +141−6.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston TexansSun 5:00 PM

Dallas Cowboys

ML1-2-33.8%SOS 20th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS1-1-1-1.5%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U2-1+28.5%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-0-1

Proj26.2

Win55

Houston Texans

ML0-3-100.0%SOS 9th-hardestHome0-2-100.0%

ATS0-3-100.0%Home0-2-100.0%

O/U1-2-36.8%Home1-1-4.5%

FAVML 0-2ATS 0-2

Proj24.5

Win45

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	DAL +124HOU −148	DAL −122HOU +122	+12.1 pp−12.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DAL 42.8% / HOU 57.2%DAL weakHOU insufficient	12d
Spread	DAL +3 @ −115HOU −3 @ −105	DAL −1.64 · −175HOU +1.64 · +175	+12.6 pp−12.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DAL 51.1% / HOU 48.9%DAL weakHOU insufficient	12d
Total	O 48.5 @ −112U 48.5 @ −108	O 50.68 · −129U 50.68 · +129	+5.9 pp−5.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	12d

MLDAL +124model DAL −122+12.1 pp
HOU −148model HOU +122−12.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DAL 42.8% / HOU 57.2%DAL weakHOU insufficient
insufficientage 12d
SpreadDAL +3 @ −115model DAL −1.64 · −175+12.6 pp
HOU −3 @ −105model HOU +1.64 · +175−12.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DAL 51.1% / HOU 48.9%DAL weakHOU insufficient
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 48.5 @ −112model O 50.68 · −129+5.9 pp
U 48.5 @ −108model U 50.68 · +129−5.9 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati BengalsSun 5:00 PM

Jacksonville Jaguars

ML2-1+14.1%SOS 11th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS2-1+31.9%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U1-2-38.2%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj25.3

Win61

Cincinnati Bengals

ML2-1+6.4%SOS 15th-hardestHome1-0+48.8%

ATS2-1+26.0%Home1-0+84.8%

O/U2-1+27.3%Home1-0+92.6%

FAVML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj21.6

Win39

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	JAC +120CIN −142	JAC −155CIN +155	+17.1 pp−17.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book JAC 43.6% / CIN 56.4%JAC weakCIN insufficient	12d
Spread	JAC +2.5 @ −105CIN −2.5 @ −115	JAC −3.61 · −210CIN +3.61 · +210	+18.8 pp−18.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book JAC 48.9% / CIN 51.1%JAC weakCIN insufficient	12d
Total	O 51.5 @ −110U 51.5 @ −110	O 46.89 · +172U 46.89 · −172	−13.2 pp+13.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O insufficientU weak	12d

MLJAC +120model JAC −155+17.1 pp
CIN −142model CIN +155−17.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book JAC 43.6% / CIN 56.4%JAC weakCIN insufficient
insufficientage 12d
SpreadJAC +2.5 @ −105model JAC −3.61 · −210+18.8 pp
CIN −2.5 @ −115model CIN +3.61 · +210−18.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book JAC 48.9% / CIN 51.1%JAC weakCIN insufficient
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 51.5 @ −110model O 46.89 · +172−13.2 pp
U 51.5 @ −110model U 46.89 · −172+13.2 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O insufficientU weak
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota VikingsSun 8:05 PM

Miami Dolphins

ML0-3-100.0%SOS 7th-hardestAway0-2-100.0%

ATS0-3-100.0%Away0-2-100.0%

O/U1-2-33.9%Away1-1-2.3%

DOGML 0-3ATS 0-3

Proj15.5

Win21

Minnesota Vikings

ML3-0+110.1%SOS 14th-hardestHome1-0+76.9%

ATS3-0+95.2%Home1-0+95.2%

O/U1-2-35.9%Home1-0+95.2%

FAVML 2-0ATS 2-0

Proj26.2

Win79

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	MIA +400MIN −535	MIA +379MIN −379	+1.7 pp−1.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 19.2% / MIN 80.8%MIA insufficientMIN insufficient	12d
Spread	MIA +10 @ −115MIN −10 @ −105	MIA +10.78 · +110MIN −10.78 · −110	−3.4 pp+3.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 51.1% / MIN 48.9%MIA insufficientMIN insufficient	12d
Total	O 38.5 @ −112U 38.5 @ −108	O 41.7 · −146U 41.7 · +146	+8.8 pp−8.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	12d

MLMIA +400model MIA +379+1.7 pp
MIN −535model MIN −379−1.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 19.2% / MIN 80.8%MIA insufficientMIN insufficient
insufficientage 12d
SpreadMIA +10 @ −115model MIA +10.78 · +110−3.4 pp
MIN −10 @ −105model MIN −10.78 · −110+3.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 51.1% / MIN 48.9%MIA insufficientMIN insufficient
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 38.5 @ −112model O 41.7 · −146+8.8 pp
U 38.5 @ −108model U 41.7 · +146−8.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ersSun 8:25 PM

Denver Broncos

ML2-1+31.6%SOS 2nd-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS2-1+25.9%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U1-2-35.1%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj19.1

Win27

San Francisco 49ers

ML3-0+25.2%SOS 21st-hardestHome2-0+14.9%

ATS2-1+28.8%Home1-1-3.7%

O/U2-1+28.1%Home2-0+90.9%

FAVML 2-0ATS 1-1

Proj27.4

Win73

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	DEN +124SAN −148	DEN +276SAN −276	−16.2 pp+16.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 42.8% / SAN 57.2%DEN insufficientSAN weak	12d
Spread	DEN +3 @ −120SAN −3 @ +100	DEN +8.32 · +190SAN −8.32 · −190	−17.7 pp+17.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 52.2% / SAN 47.8%DEN insufficientSAN weak	12d
Total	O 48.5 @ −105U 48.5 @ −115	O 46.56 · +125U 46.56 · −125	−4.6 pp+4.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU insufficient	12d

MLDEN +124model DEN +276−16.2 pp
SAN −148model SAN −276+16.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 42.8% / SAN 57.2%DEN insufficientSAN weak
insufficientage 12d
SpreadDEN +3 @ −120model DEN +8.32 · +190−17.7 pp
SAN −3 @ +100model SAN −8.32 · −190+17.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 52.2% / SAN 47.8%DEN insufficientSAN weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 48.5 @ −105model O 46.56 · +125−4.6 pp
U 48.5 @ −115model U 46.56 · −125+4.6 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle SeahawksSun 8:25 PM

Los Angeles Chargers

ML0-3-100.0%SOS 16th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS0-3-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U0-3-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj16.7

Win24

Seattle Seahawks

ML2-1-26.9%SOS 15th-hardestHome1-0+60.2%

ATS1-1-1-1.5%Home0-0-10.0%

O/U1-2-37.2%Home0-1-100.0%

FAVML 2-1ATS 1-1-1

Proj26.3

Win76

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	LOS +285SEA −360	LOS +324SEA −324	−1.3 pp+1.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 24.9% / SEA 75.1%LOS insufficientSEA insufficient	12d
Spread	LOS +7 @ −108SEA −7 @ −112	LOS +9.56 · +136SEA −9.56 · −136	−7.2 pp+7.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 49.6% / SEA 50.4%LOS insufficientSEA weak	12d
Total	O 42.5 @ −118U 42.5 @ −102	O 43 · −106U 43 · +106	−0.3 pp+0.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O insufficientU insufficient	12d

MLLOS +285model LOS +324−1.3 pp
SEA −360model SEA −324+1.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 24.9% / SEA 75.1%LOS insufficientSEA insufficient
insufficientage 12d
SpreadLOS +7 @ −108model LOS +9.56 · +136−7.2 pp
SEA −7 @ −112model SEA −9.56 · −136+7.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 49.6% / SEA 50.4%LOS insufficientSEA weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 42.5 @ −118model O 43 · −106−0.3 pp
U 42.5 @ −102model U 43 · +106+0.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas RaidersSun 8:25 PM

Kansas City Chiefs

ML3-0+32.3%SOS 28th-hardestAway1-0+18.7%

ATS2-1+28.2%Away1-0+90.9%

O/U1-2-35.9%Away0-1-100.0%

FAVML 3-0ATS 2-1

Proj23.1

Win52

Las Vegas Raiders

ML3-0+137.1%SOS 23rd-hardestHome1-0+57.1%

ATS3-0+90.7%Home1-0+87.0%

O/U1-2-34.5%Home0-1-100.0%

DOGML 2-0ATS 2-0

Proj22.5

Win48

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	KAN −225LAS +185	KAN −108LAS +108	−14.5 pp+14.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book KAN 66.4% / LAS 33.6%KAN insufficientLAS weak	12d
Spread	KAN −4.5 @ −115LAS +4.5 @ −105	KAN −0.61 · +160LAS +0.61 · −160	−12.6 pp+12.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book KAN 51.1% / LAS 48.9%KAN insufficientLAS weak	12d
Total	O 47.5 @ −115U 47.5 @ −105	O 45.67 · +124U 45.67 · −124	−6.4 pp+6.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU weak	12d

MLKAN −225model KAN −108−14.5 pp
LAS +185model LAS +108+14.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book KAN 66.4% / LAS 33.6%KAN insufficientLAS weak
insufficientage 12d
SpreadKAN −4.5 @ −115model KAN −0.61 · +160−12.6 pp
LAS +4.5 @ −105model LAS +0.61 · −160+12.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book KAN 51.1% / LAS 48.9%KAN insufficientLAS weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 47.5 @ −115model O 45.67 · +124−6.4 pp
U 47.5 @ −105model U 45.67 · −124+6.4 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU weak
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Detroit Lions @ Carolina PanthersMon 12:20 AM

Detroit Lions

ML2-1+13.7%SOS 19th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS1-2-36.2%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U3-0+87.2%Away1-0+83.3%

FAVML 2-0ATS 1-1

Proj27.8

Win50

Carolina Panthers

ML1-2-36.7%SOS 27th-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS1-2-33.3%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U1-2-37.3%Home1-0+90.9%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj27.8

Win50

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	DET −192CAR +160	DET −100CAR −100	−13.1 pp+13.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 63.1% / CAR 36.9%DET insufficientCAR weak	12d
Spread	DET −3.5 @ −115CAR +3.5 @ −105	DET PK · +152CAR PK · −152	−11.5 pp+11.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 51.1% / CAR 48.9%DET insufficientCAR weak	12d
Total	O 51.5 @ −105U 51.5 @ −115	O 55.6 · −162U 55.6 · +162	+12.9 pp−12.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	12d

MLDET −192model DET −100−13.1 pp
CAR +160model CAR −100+13.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 63.1% / CAR 36.9%DET insufficientCAR weak
insufficientage 12d
SpreadDET −3.5 @ −115model DET PK · +152−11.5 pp
CAR +3.5 @ −105model CAR PK · −152+11.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 51.1% / CAR 48.9%DET insufficientCAR weak
insufficientage 12d
TotalO 51.5 @ −105model O 55.6 · −162+12.9 pp
U 51.5 @ −115model U 55.6 · +162−12.9 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 12d

Open game

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans SaintsTue 12:15 AM

Atlanta Falcons

ML1-20.0%SOS 31st-hardestAway1-1+50.0%

ATS1-2-34.9%Away1-1-4.7%

O/U1-2-35.9%Away1-1-5.2%

DOGML 1-2ATS 1-2

Proj21.9

Win43

New Orleans Saints

ML1-2-0.8%SOS 4th-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS2-1+30.0%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-1+26.5%Home1-0+84.8%

FAVML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj24.3

Win57

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	ATL +102NEW −122	ATL +134NEW −134	−4.7 pp+4.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 47.4% / NEW 52.6%ATL insufficientNEW weak	11d
Spread	ATL +1.5 @ −112NEW −1.5 @ −108	ATL +2.43 · +112NEW −2.43 · −112	−3.2 pp+3.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 50.4% / NEW 49.6%ATL insufficientNEW insufficient	11d
Total	O 47.5 @ −115U 47.5 @ −105	O 46.21 · +116U 46.21 · −116	−4.8 pp+4.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU insufficient	11d

MLATL +102model ATL +134−4.7 pp
NEW −122model NEW −134+4.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 47.4% / NEW 52.6%ATL insufficientNEW weak
insufficientage 11d
SpreadATL +1.5 @ −112model ATL +2.43 · +112−3.2 pp
NEW −1.5 @ −108model NEW −2.43 · −112+3.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 50.4% / NEW 49.6%ATL insufficientNEW insufficient
insufficientage 11d
TotalO 47.5 @ −115model O 46.21 · +116−4.8 pp
U 47.5 @ −105model U 46.21 · −116+4.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage 11d

Open game