‹2026 · Week 3›

NFL · Week 3

16 gamesodds 18 d old

Season picks

StatusSort

No validated markets here: every row below is experimental or insufficient.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay PackersFri 12:15 AM

Atlanta Falcons

ML0-2-100.0%SOS 26th-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS0-2-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U0-2-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-2ATS 0-2

Proj19.6

Win33

Green Bay Packers

ML1-10.0%SOS 23rd-hardest

ATS0-2-100.0%

O/U1-1-4.7%

FAVML 1-0ATS 0-1

Proj25.3

Win67

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	ATL +200GRE −245	ATL +200GRE −200	+1.4 pp−1.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 31.9% / GRE 68.1%ATL insufficientGRE insufficient	—
Spread	ATL +4.5 @ −105GRE −4.5 @ −115	ATL +5.72 · +116GRE −5.72 · −116	−2.6 pp+2.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 48.9% / GRE 51.1%ATL insufficientGRE insufficient	—
Total	O 42.5 @ −118U 42.5 @ −102	O 44.94 · −133U 44.94 · +133	+5.3 pp−5.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O weakU insufficient	—

MLATL +200model ATL +200+1.4 pp
GRE −245model GRE −200−1.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 31.9% / GRE 68.1%ATL insufficientGRE insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadATL +4.5 @ −105model ATL +5.72 · +116−2.6 pp
GRE −4.5 @ −115model GRE −5.72 · −116+2.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 48.9% / GRE 51.1%ATL insufficientGRE insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 42.5 @ −118model O 44.94 · −133+5.3 pp
U 42.5 @ −102model U 44.94 · +133−5.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington CommandersSun 5:00 PM

Seattle Seahawks

ML2-0+53.9%SOS 8th-hardestAway1-0+48.8%

ATS1-0-1+42.0%Away1-0+83.3%

O/U0-2-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

FAVML 2-0ATS 1-0-1

Proj26.6

Win70

Washington Commanders

ML0-2-100.0%SOS 19th-hardest

ATS1-10.0%

O/U2-0+88.9%

DOGML 0-2ATS 1-1

Proj19.5

Win30

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	SEA −410WAS +320	SEA −237WAS +237	−6.8 pp+6.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SEA 77.1% / WAS 22.9%SEA insufficientWAS weak	—
Spread	SEA −8.5 @ −105WAS +8.5 @ −115	SEA −7.09 · +118WAS +7.09 · −118	−3.1 pp+3.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SEA 48.9% / WAS 51.1%SEA insufficientWAS insufficient	—
Total	O 40.5 @ −108U 40.5 @ −112	O 46.03 · −191U 46.03 · +191	+16.1 pp−16.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient	—

MLSEA −410model SEA −237−6.8 pp
WAS +320model WAS +237+6.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SEA 77.1% / WAS 22.9%SEA insufficientWAS weak
insufficientage —
SpreadSEA −8.5 @ −105model SEA −7.09 · +118−3.1 pp
WAS +8.5 @ −115model WAS +7.09 · −118+3.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SEA 48.9% / WAS 51.1%SEA insufficientWAS insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 40.5 @ −108model O 46.03 · −191+16.1 pp
U 40.5 @ −112model U 46.03 · +191−16.1 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis ColtsSun 5:00 PM

Houston Texans

ML0-2-100.0%SOS 10th-hardest

ATS0-2-100.0%

O/U1-1-4.5%

FAVML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj25.3

Win50

Indianapolis Colts

ML0-2-100.0%SOS 5th-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS1-1-8.6%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-0+92.2%Home1-0+87.0%

DOGML 0-2ATS 1-1

Proj25.2

Win50

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	HOU −122IND +102	HOU −101IND +101	−2.4 pp+2.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book HOU 52.6% / IND 47.4%HOU insufficientIND insufficient	—
Spread	HOU −1.5 @ −112IND +1.5 @ −108	HOU −0.09 · +118IND +0.09 · −118	−4.6 pp+4.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book HOU 50.4% / IND 49.6%HOU insufficientIND weak	—
Total	O 42.5 @ −112U 42.5 @ −108	O 50.45 · −256U 50.45 · +256	+21.5 pp−21.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	—

MLHOU −122model HOU −101−2.4 pp
IND +102model IND +101+2.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book HOU 52.6% / IND 47.4%HOU insufficientIND insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadHOU −1.5 @ −112model HOU −0.09 · +118−4.6 pp
IND +1.5 @ −108model IND +0.09 · −118+4.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book HOU 50.4% / IND 49.6%HOU insufficientIND weak
insufficientage —
TotalO 42.5 @ −112model O 50.45 · −256+21.5 pp
U 42.5 @ −108model U 50.45 · +256−21.5 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo BillsSun 5:00 PM

Los Angeles Chargers

ML0-2-100.0%SOS 28th-hardest

ATS0-2-100.0%

O/U0-2-100.0%

Proj21.0

Win24

Buffalo Bills

ML2-0+57.1%SOS 7th-hardestHome1-0+42.0%

ATS2-0+93.9%Home1-0+95.2%

O/U2-0+87.0%Home1-0+83.3%

FAVML 2-0ATS 2-0

Proj30.3

Win76

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	LOS +260BUF −325	LOS +310BUF −310	−2.3 pp+2.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 26.7% / BUF 73.4%LOS insufficientBUF insufficient	—
Spread	LOS +7 @ −108BUF −7 @ −112	LOS +9.23 · +131BUF −9.23 · −131	−6.2 pp+6.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 49.6% / BUF 50.4%LOS insufficientBUF weak	—
Total	O 50.5 @ −105U 50.5 @ −115	O 51.31 · −110U 51.31 · +110	+3.5 pp−3.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLLOS +260model LOS +310−2.3 pp
BUF −325model BUF −310+2.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 26.7% / BUF 73.4%LOS insufficientBUF insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadLOS +7 @ −108model LOS +9.23 · +131−6.2 pp
BUF −7 @ −112model BUF −9.23 · −131+6.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 49.6% / BUF 50.4%LOS insufficientBUF weak
insufficientage —
TotalO 50.5 @ −105model O 51.31 · −110+3.5 pp
U 50.5 @ −115model U 51.31 · +110−3.5 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville JaguarsSun 5:00 PM

New England Patriots

ML1-10.0%SOS 1st-hardestAway0-1-100.0%

ATS1-0-1+46.7%Away0-0-10.0%

O/U0-2-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-0-1

Proj20.2

Win46

Jacksonville Jaguars

ML1-10.0%SOS 24th-hardestHome1-0+22.0%

ATS1-10.0%Home1-0+89.3%

O/U1-1-4.7%Home1-0+98.0%

FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj21.7

Win55

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	NEW +130JAC −155	NEW +120JAC −120	+3.8 pp−3.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 41.7% / JAC 58.3%NEW insufficientJAC insufficient	—
Spread	NEW +3 @ −118JAC −3 @ −102	NEW +1.5 · −120JAC −1.5 · +120	+2.7 pp−2.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 51.7% / JAC 48.3%NEW insufficientJAC insufficient	—
Total	O 45.5 @ −115U 45.5 @ −105	O 41.86 · +153U 41.86 · −153	−11.6 pp+11.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU weak	—

MLNEW +130model NEW +120+3.8 pp
JAC −155model JAC −120−3.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 41.7% / JAC 58.3%NEW insufficientJAC insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadNEW +3 @ −118model NEW +1.5 · −120+2.7 pp
JAC −3 @ −102model JAC −1.5 · +120−2.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 51.7% / JAC 48.3%NEW insufficientJAC insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 45.5 @ −115model O 41.86 · +153−11.6 pp
U 45.5 @ −105model U 41.86 · −153+11.6 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU weak
insufficientage —

Open game

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh SteelersSun 5:00 PM

Cincinnati Bengals

ML2-0+73.4%SOS 12th-hardestAway1-0+124.0%

ATS2-0+84.8%Away1-0+84.8%

O/U1-1-4.6%Away0-1-100.0%

FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj22.8

Win58

Pittsburgh Steelers

ML1-10.0%SOS 9th-hardestHome1-0+35.1%

ATS1-1-3.7%Home1-0+90.9%

O/U0-2-100.0%Home0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj20.2

Win42

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	CIN −192PIT +160	CIN −137PIT +137	−5.3 pp+5.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 63.1% / PIT 36.9%CIN insufficientPIT weak	—
Spread	CIN −3.5 @ −110PIT +3.5 @ −110	CIN −2.62 · +111PIT +2.62 · −111	−2.6 pp+2.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 50.0% / PIT 50.0%CIN insufficientPIT insufficient	—
Total	O 42.5 @ −112U 42.5 @ −108	O 43.06 · −107U 43.06 · +107	+1.2 pp−1.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLCIN −192model CIN −137−5.3 pp
PIT +160model PIT +137+5.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 63.1% / PIT 36.9%CIN insufficientPIT weak
insufficientage —
SpreadCIN −3.5 @ −110model CIN −2.62 · +111−2.6 pp
PIT +3.5 @ −110model PIT +2.62 · −111+2.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 50.0% / PIT 50.0%CIN insufficientPIT insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 42.5 @ −112model O 43.06 · −107+1.2 pp
U 42.5 @ −108model U 43.06 · +107−1.2 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami DolphinsSun 5:00 PM

Kansas City Chiefs

ML2-0+50.6%SOS 16th-hardest

ATS1-1-3.7%

O/U1-1-3.8%

FAVML 2-0ATS 1-1

Proj26.6

Win68

Miami Dolphins

ML0-2-100.0%SOS 18th-hardest

ATS0-2-100.0%

O/U1-1-2.3%

DOGML 0-2ATS 0-2

Proj20.4

Win32

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	KAN −535MIA +400	KAN −214MIA +214	−12.7 pp+12.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book KAN 80.8% / MIA 19.2%KAN insufficientMIA weak	—
Spread	KAN −9.5 @ −110MIA +9.5 @ −110	KAN −6.28 · +147MIA +6.28 · −147	−9.5 pp+9.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book KAN 50.0% / MIA 50.0%KAN insufficientMIA weak	—
Total	O 45.5 @ −105U 45.5 @ −115	O 47.02 · −119U 47.02 · +119	+5.5 pp−5.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	—

MLKAN −535model KAN −214−12.7 pp
MIA +400model MIA +214+12.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book KAN 80.8% / MIA 19.2%KAN insufficientMIA weak
insufficientage —
SpreadKAN −9.5 @ −110model KAN −6.28 · +147−9.5 pp
MIA +9.5 @ −110model MIA +6.28 · −147+9.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book KAN 50.0% / MIA 50.0%KAN insufficientMIA weak
insufficientage —
TotalO 45.5 @ −105model O 47.02 · −119+5.5 pp
U 45.5 @ −115model U 47.02 · +119−5.5 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

New York Jets @ Detroit LionsSun 5:00 PM

New York Jets

ML1-10.0%SOS 31st-hardestAway1-0+98.0%

ATS2-0+89.7%Away1-0+87.0%

O/U0-2-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 1-1ATS 2-0

Proj23.2

Win36

Detroit Lions

ML1-10.0%SOS 11th-hardestHome1-0+30.8%

ATS0-2-100.0%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-0+86.2%Home1-0+89.3%

FAVML 1-0ATS 0-1

Proj27.8

Win64

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	NEW +245DET −305	NEW +174DET −174	+8.7 pp−8.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 27.8% / DET 72.2%NEW weakDET insufficient	—
Spread	NEW +6.5 @ +100DET −6.5 @ −120	NEW +4.59 · −126DET −4.59 · +126	+7.9 pp−7.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 47.8% / DET 52.2%NEW weakDET insufficient	—
Total	O 48.5 @ −112U 48.5 @ −108	O 50.97 · −133U 50.97 · +133	+6.7 pp−6.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	—

MLNEW +245model NEW +174+8.7 pp
DET −305model DET −174−8.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 27.8% / DET 72.2%NEW weakDET insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadNEW +6.5 @ +100model NEW +4.59 · −126+7.9 pp
DET −6.5 @ −120model DET −4.59 · +126−7.9 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 47.8% / DET 52.2%NEW weakDET insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 48.5 @ −112model O 50.97 · −133+6.7 pp
U 48.5 @ −108model U 50.97 · +133−6.7 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Tennessee Titans @ New York GiantsSun 5:00 PM

Tennessee Titans

ML0-2-100.0%SOS 27th-hardest

ATS1-1-2.4%

O/U1-1-5.4%

DOGML 0-1ATS 1-0

Proj20.1

Win43

New York Giants

ML1-1+18.0%SOS 20th-hardestHome1-0+136.0%

ATS1-1-2.3%Home1-0+87.0%

O/U0-2-100.0%Home0-1-100.0%

Proj22.3

Win57

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	TEN +110NEW −130	TEN +130NEW −130	−2.2 pp+2.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TEN 45.7% / NEW 54.3%TEN insufficientNEW insufficient	—
Spread	TEN +2.5 @ −110NEW −2.5 @ −110	TEN +2.18 · −104NEW −2.18 · +104	+1.0 pp−1.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TEN 50.0% / NEW 50.0%TEN insufficientNEW insufficient	—
Total	O 37.5 @ −110U 37.5 @ −110	O 42.42 · −178U 42.42 · +178	+14.0 pp−14.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	—

MLTEN +110model TEN +130−2.2 pp
NEW −130model NEW −130+2.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TEN 45.7% / NEW 54.3%TEN insufficientNEW insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadTEN +2.5 @ −110model TEN +2.18 · −104+1.0 pp
NEW −2.5 @ −110model NEW −2.18 · +104−1.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TEN 50.0% / NEW 50.0%TEN insufficientNEW insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 37.5 @ −110model O 42.42 · −178+14.0 pp
U 37.5 @ −110model U 42.42 · +178−14.0 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland BrownsSun 5:00 PM

Carolina Panthers

ML1-10.0%SOS 22nd-hardestAway1-0+64.5%

ATS1-10.0%Away1-0+83.3%

O/U1-1-4.5%Away0-1-100.0%

FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj25.5

Win62

Cleveland Browns

ML1-1+115.0%SOS 13th-hardest

ATS1-1-3.6%

O/U2-0+95.2%

DOGML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj21.5

Win38

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	CAR −148CLE +124	CAR −161CLE +161	+4.5 pp−4.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CAR 57.2% / CLE 42.8%CAR weakCLE insufficient	—
Spread	CAR −2.5 @ −110CLE +2.5 @ −110	CAR −3.95 · −119CLE +3.95 · +119	+4.3 pp−4.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CAR 50.0% / CLE 50.0%CAR weakCLE insufficient	—
Total	O 41.5 @ −115U 41.5 @ −105	O 46.99 · −190U 46.99 · +190	+14.5 pp−14.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient	—

MLCAR −148model CAR −161+4.5 pp
CLE +124model CLE +161−4.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CAR 57.2% / CLE 42.8%CAR weakCLE insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadCAR −2.5 @ −110model CAR −3.95 · −119+4.3 pp
CLE +2.5 @ −110model CLE +3.95 · +119−4.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CAR 50.0% / CLE 50.0%CAR weakCLE insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 41.5 @ −115model O 46.99 · −190+14.5 pp
U 41.5 @ −105model U 46.99 · +190−14.5 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ersSun 8:05 PM

Arizona Cardinals

ML1-1+145.0%SOS 2nd-hardestAway1-0+390.0%

ATS1-10.0%Away1-0+95.2%

O/U0-2-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj17.4

Win21

San Francisco 49ers

ML2-0+25.1%SOS 21st-hardestHome1-0+10.5%

ATS2-0+94.3%Home1-0+90.9%

O/U1-1-3.6%Home1-0+87.0%

FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj28.1

Win79

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	ARI +310SAN −395	ARI +376SAN −376	−2.4 pp+2.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 23.4% / SAN 76.6%ARI insufficientSAN insufficient	—
Spread	ARI +7.5 @ −112SAN −7.5 @ −108	ARI +10.7 · +147SAN −10.7 · −147	−9.9 pp+9.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 50.4% / SAN 49.6%ARI insufficientSAN weak	—
Total	O 48.5 @ −105U 48.5 @ −115	O 45.44 · +143U 45.44 · −143	−7.8 pp+7.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU weak	—

MLARI +310model ARI +376−2.4 pp
SAN −395model SAN −376+2.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 23.4% / SAN 76.6%ARI insufficientSAN insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadARI +7.5 @ −112model ARI +10.7 · +147−9.9 pp
SAN −7.5 @ −108model SAN −10.7 · −147+9.9 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 50.4% / SAN 49.6%ARI insufficientSAN weak
insufficientage —
TotalO 48.5 @ −105model O 45.44 · +143−7.8 pp
U 48.5 @ −115model U 45.44 · −143+7.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU weak
insufficientage —

Open game

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun 8:05 PM

Minnesota Vikings

ML2-0+121.7%SOS 5th-hardestAway1-0+180.0%

ATS2-0+93.0%Away1-0+90.9%

O/U1-1-4.7%Away0-1-100.0%

FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj22.8

Win54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ML0-2-100.0%SOS 31st-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS0-2-100.0%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U2-0+92.6%Home1-0+92.6%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj21.4

Win46

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	MIN −115TAM −105	MIN −117TAM +117	+2.9 pp−2.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 51.1% / TAM 48.9%MIN insufficientTAM insufficient	—
Spread	MIN −1.5 @ +100TAM +1.5 @ −120	MIN −1.32 · +102TAM +1.32 · −102	+1.6 pp−1.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 47.8% / TAM 52.2%MIN insufficientTAM insufficient	—
Total	O 42.5 @ −105U 42.5 @ −115	O 44.18 · −122U 44.18 · +122	+6.0 pp−6.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	—

MLMIN −115model MIN −117+2.9 pp
TAM −105model TAM +117−2.9 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 51.1% / TAM 48.9%MIN insufficientTAM insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadMIN −1.5 @ +100model MIN −1.32 · +102+1.6 pp
TAM +1.5 @ −120model TAM +1.32 · −102−1.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 47.8% / TAM 52.2%MIN insufficientTAM insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 42.5 @ −105model O 44.18 · −122+6.0 pp
U 42.5 @ −115model U 44.18 · +122−6.0 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans SaintsSun 8:25 PM

Las Vegas Raiders

ML2-0+127.3%SOS 29th-hardestAway1-0+250.0%

ATS2-0+94.0%Away1-0+102.0%

O/U0-2-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

DOGML 1-0ATS 1-0

Proj19.9

Win41

New Orleans Saints

ML1-1+97.5%SOS 4th-hardest

ATS2-0+88.9%

O/U1-1-4.5%

Proj23.0

Win59

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	LAS +164NEW −198	LAS +144NEW −144	+4.6 pp−4.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 36.3% / NEW 63.7%LAS weakNEW insufficient	—
Spread	LAS +3.5 @ −118NEW −3.5 @ −102	LAS +3.05 · −106NEW −3.05 · +106	−0.4 pp+0.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 51.7% / NEW 48.3%LAS insufficientNEW insufficient	—
Total	O 43.5 @ −118U 43.5 @ −102	O 42.87 · +108U 42.87 · −108	−3.6 pp+3.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLLAS +164model LAS +144+4.6 pp
NEW −198model NEW −144−4.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 36.3% / NEW 63.7%LAS weakNEW insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadLAS +3.5 @ −118model LAS +3.05 · −106−0.4 pp
NEW −3.5 @ −102model NEW −3.05 · +106+0.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 51.7% / NEW 48.3%LAS insufficientNEW insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 43.5 @ −118model O 42.87 · +108−3.6 pp
U 43.5 @ −102model U 42.87 · −108+3.6 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas CowboysSun 8:25 PM

Baltimore Ravens

ML1-1-50.0%SOS 14th-hardestAway1-0+57.1%

ATS1-1-2.4%Away1-0+100.0%

O/U1-1-4.4%Away1-0+87.0%

FAVML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj27.0

Win52

Dallas Cowboys

ML1-1-16.3%SOS 24th-hardestHome1-0+45.9%

ATS1-1-2.2%Home1-0+83.3%

O/U1-1-2.2%Home1-0+83.3%

Proj26.3

Win48

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	BAL −162DAL +136	BAL −108DAL +108	−7.3 pp+7.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 59.3% / DAL 40.7%BAL insufficientDAL weak	—
Spread	BAL −3 @ −118DAL +3 @ −102	BAL −0.67 · +132DAL +0.67 · −132	−8.7 pp+8.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 51.7% / DAL 48.3%BAL insufficientDAL weak	—
Total	O 53.5 @ −108U 53.5 @ −112	O 53.31 · +102U 53.31 · −102	−0.1 pp+0.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLBAL −162model BAL −108−7.3 pp
DAL +136model DAL +108+7.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 59.3% / DAL 40.7%BAL insufficientDAL weak
insufficientage —
SpreadBAL −3 @ −118model BAL −0.67 · +132−8.7 pp
DAL +3 @ −102model DAL +0.67 · −132+8.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 51.7% / DAL 48.3%BAL insufficientDAL weak
insufficientage —
TotalO 53.5 @ −108model O 53.31 · +102−0.1 pp
U 53.5 @ −112model U 53.31 · −102+0.1 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Los Angeles Rams @ Denver BroncosMon 12:20 AM

Los Angeles Rams

ML1-1-19.8%SOS 13th-hardest

ATS1-1-7.7%

O/U0-2-100.0%

FAVML 1-1ATS 1-1

Proj22.4

Win52

Denver Broncos

ML1-10.0%SOS 2nd-hardestHome1-0+67.6%

ATS1-1-5.2%Home1-0+83.3%

O/U0-2-100.0%Home0-1-100.0%

DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

Proj21.6

Win48

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	LOS −130DEN +110	LOS −109DEN +109	−2.1 pp+2.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 54.3% / DEN 45.7%LOS insufficientDEN insufficient	—
Spread	LOS −1.5 @ −112DEN +1.5 @ −108	LOS −0.72 · +110DEN +0.72 · −110	−2.8 pp+2.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 50.4% / DEN 49.6%LOS insufficientDEN insufficient	—
Total	O 43.5 @ −118U 43.5 @ −102	O 44.02 · −106U 44.02 · +106	−0.2 pp+0.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLLOS −130model LOS −109−2.1 pp
DEN +110model DEN +109+2.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 54.3% / DEN 45.7%LOS insufficientDEN insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadLOS −1.5 @ −112model LOS −0.72 · +110−2.8 pp
DEN +1.5 @ −108model DEN +0.72 · −110+2.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LOS 50.4% / DEN 49.6%LOS insufficientDEN insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 43.5 @ −118model O 44.02 · −106−0.2 pp
U 43.5 @ −102model U 44.02 · +106+0.2 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago BearsTue 12:15 AM

Philadelphia Eagles

ML2-0+34.3%SOS 32nd-hardestAway1-0+30.8%

ATS0-2-100.0%Away0-1-100.0%

O/U2-0+92.2%Away1-0+89.3%

FAVML 2-0ATS 0-2

Proj22.9

Win42

Chicago Bears

ML1-1-30.0%SOS 10th-hardestHome0-1-100.0%

ATS1-1-4.3%Home0-1-100.0%

O/U1-1-4.5%Home0-1-100.0%

Proj25.7

Win58

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	PHI −192CHI +160	PHI +139CHI −139	−21.3 pp+21.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 63.1% / CHI 36.9%PHI insufficientCHI weak	18d
Spread	PHI −3.5 @ −108CHI +3.5 @ −112	PHI +2.76 · +213CHI −2.76 · −213	−17.6 pp+17.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 49.6% / CHI 50.4%PHI insufficientCHI weak	18d
Total	O 41.5 @ −110U 41.5 @ −110	O 48.66 · −233U 48.66 · +233	+19.9 pp−19.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	18d

MLPHI −192model PHI +139−21.3 pp
CHI +160model CHI −139+21.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 63.1% / CHI 36.9%PHI insufficientCHI weak
insufficientage 18d
SpreadPHI −3.5 @ −108model PHI +2.76 · +213−17.6 pp
CHI +3.5 @ −112model CHI −2.76 · −213+17.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 49.6% / CHI 50.4%PHI insufficientCHI weak
insufficientage 18d
TotalO 41.5 @ −110model O 48.66 · −233+19.9 pp
U 41.5 @ −110model U 48.66 · +233−19.9 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage 18d

Open game