NFL · Week 2

No validated markets here: every row below is experimental or insufficient.

• Detroit Lions @ Buffalo BillsFri 12:15 AM

  DET

  Detroit Lions

  ML1-0+30.8%SOS 24th-hardest

  ATS0-1-100.0%

  O/U1-0+89.3%

  Proj27.5

  Win42

  BUF

  Buffalo Bills

  ML1-0+89.3%SOS 5th-hardest

  ATS1-0+92.6%

  O/U1-0+90.9%

  FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

  Proj30.3

  Win58

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	DET +195BUF −238	DET +140BUF −140	+9.1 pp−9.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 32.5% / BUF 67.5%DET weakBUF insufficient	—
  Spread	DET +5.5 @ −115BUF −5.5 @ −105	DET +2.8 · −138BUF −2.8 · +138	+6.9 pp−6.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 51.1% / BUF 48.9%DET weakBUF insufficient	—
  Total	O 54.5 @ −120U 54.5 @ +100	O 57.82 · −147U 57.82 · +147	+7.4 pp−7.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 52.2% / U 47.8%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLDET +195→model DET +140+9.1 pp
    BUF −238→model BUF −140−9.1 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 32.5% / BUF 67.5%DET weakBUF insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadDET +5.5 @ −115→model DET +2.8 · −138+6.9 pp
    BUF −5.5 @ −105→model BUF −2.8 · +138−6.9 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DET 51.1% / BUF 48.9%DET weakBUF insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 54.5 @ −120→model O 57.82 · −147+7.4 pp
    U 54.5 @ +100→model U 57.82 · +147−7.4 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 52.2% / U 47.8%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun 5:00 PM

  CLE

  Cleveland Browns

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 4th-hardest·Away0-1-100.0%

  ATS0-1-100.0%·Away0-1-100.0%

  O/U1-0+98.0%·Away1-0+98.0%

  DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

  Proj19.4

  Win27

  TAM

  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 26th-hardest

  ATS0-1-100.0%

  O/U1-0+92.6%

  Proj27.4

  Win73

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	CLE +330TAM −425	CLE +266TAM −266	+5.0 pp−5.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 22.3% / TAM 77.7%CLE weakTAM insufficient	—
  Spread	CLE +8.5 @ −115TAM −8.5 @ −105	CLE +8 · −106TAM −8 · +106	+0.4 pp−0.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 51.1% / TAM 48.9%CLE insufficientTAM insufficient	—
  Total	O 41.5 @ −108U 41.5 @ −112	O 46.88 · −188U 46.88 · +188	+15.7 pp−15.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLCLE +330→model CLE +266+5.0 pp
    TAM −425→model TAM −266−5.0 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 22.3% / TAM 77.7%CLE weakTAM insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadCLE +8.5 @ −115→model CLE +8 · −106+0.4 pp
    TAM −8.5 @ −105→model TAM −8 · +106−0.4 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 51.1% / TAM 48.9%CLE insufficientTAM insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 41.5 @ −108→model O 46.88 · −188+15.7 pp
    U 41.5 @ −112→model U 46.88 · +188−15.7 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago BearsSun 5:00 PM

  MIN

  Minnesota Vikings

  ML1-0+76.9%SOS 15th-hardest

  ATS1-0+95.2%

  O/U1-0+95.2%

  Proj29.0

  Win46

  CHI

  Chicago Bears

  ML1-0+57.1%SOS 24th-hardest

  ATS1-0+83.3%

  O/U1-0+90.9%

  FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

  Proj30.2

  Win54

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	MIN +180CHI −218	MIN +117CHI −117	+11.9 pp−11.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 34.3% / CHI 65.8%MIN weakCHI insufficient	—
  Spread	MIN +4.5 @ −110CHI −4.5 @ −110	MIN +1.28 · −147CHI −1.28 · +147	+9.5 pp−9.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 50.0% / CHI 50.0%MIN weakCHI insufficient	—
  Total	O 47.5 @ −110U 47.5 @ −110	O 59.2 · −409U 59.2 · +409	+30.3 pp−30.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLMIN +180→model MIN +117+11.9 pp
    CHI −218→model CHI −117−11.9 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 34.3% / CHI 65.8%MIN weakCHI insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadMIN +4.5 @ −110→model MIN +1.28 · −147+9.5 pp
    CHI −4.5 @ −110→model CHI −1.28 · +147−9.5 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIN 50.0% / CHI 50.0%MIN weakCHI insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 47.5 @ −110→model O 59.2 · −409+30.3 pp
    U 47.5 @ −110→model U 59.2 · +409−30.3 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England PatriotsSun 5:00 PM

  PIT

  Pittsburgh Steelers

  ML1-0+35.1%SOS 22nd-hardest

  ATS1-0+90.9%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  Proj19.0

  Win43

  NEW

  New England Patriots

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 1st-hardest

  ATS0-0-10.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  Proj21.2

  Win57

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	PIT +190NEW −230	PIT +131NEW −131	+10.2 pp−10.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PIT 33.1% / NEW 66.9%PIT weakNEW insufficient	—
  Spread	PIT +5.5 @ −108NEW −5.5 @ −112	PIT +2.24 · −148NEW −2.24 · +148	+10.1 pp−10.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PIT 49.6% / NEW 50.4%PIT weakNEW insufficient	—
  Total	O 41.5 @ −108U 41.5 @ −112	O 40.18 · +117U 40.18 · −117	−3.4 pp+3.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient	—

  • MLPIT +190→model PIT +131+10.2 pp
    NEW −230→model NEW −131−10.2 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PIT 33.1% / NEW 66.9%PIT weakNEW insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadPIT +5.5 @ −108→model PIT +2.24 · −148+10.1 pp
    NEW −5.5 @ −112→model NEW −2.24 · +148−10.1 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PIT 49.6% / NEW 50.4%PIT weakNEW insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 41.5 @ −108→model O 40.18 · +117−3.4 pp
    U 41.5 @ −112→model U 40.18 · −117+3.4 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston TexansSun 5:00 PM

  CIN

  Cincinnati Bengals

  ML1-0+48.8%SOS 20th-hardest

  ATS1-0+84.8%

  O/U1-0+92.6%

  Proj26.8

  Win45

  HOU

  Houston Texans

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 5th-hardest·Home0-1-100.0%

  ATS0-1-100.0%·Home0-1-100.0%

  O/U1-0+90.9%·Home1-0+90.9%

  Proj28.5

  Win55

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	CIN +124HOU −148	CIN +123HOU −123	+2.1 pp−2.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 42.8% / HOU 57.2%CIN insufficientHOU insufficient	—
  Spread	CIN +3 @ −118HOU −3 @ −102	CIN +1.71 · −117HOU −1.71 · +117	+2.1 pp−2.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 51.7% / HOU 48.3%CIN insufficientHOU insufficient	—
  Total	O 45.5 @ −110U 45.5 @ −110	O 55.33 · −323U 55.33 · +323	+26.4 pp−26.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLCIN +124→model CIN +123+2.1 pp
    HOU −148→model HOU −123−2.1 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 42.8% / HOU 57.2%CIN insufficientHOU insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadCIN +3 @ −118→model CIN +1.71 · −117+2.1 pp
    HOU −3 @ −102→model HOU −1.71 · +117−2.1 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CIN 51.7% / HOU 48.3%CIN insufficientHOU insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 45.5 @ −110→model O 55.33 · −323+26.4 pp
    U 45.5 @ −110→model U 55.33 · +323−26.4 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Green Bay Packers @ New York JetsSun 5:00 PM

  GRE

  Green Bay Packers

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 18th-hardest·Away0-1-100.0%

  ATS0-1-100.0%·Away0-1-100.0%

  O/U1-0+95.2%·Away1-0+95.2%

  Proj22.2

  Win45

  NEW

  New York Jets

  ML1-0+98.0%SOS 31st-hardest

  ATS1-0+87.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  DOGML 1-0ATS 1-0

  Proj23.8

  Win55

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	GRE −192NEW +160	GRE +121NEW −121	−17.9 pp+17.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 63.1% / NEW 36.9%GRE insufficientNEW weak	—
  Spread	GRE −3.5 @ −112NEW +3.5 @ −108	GRE +1.62 · +185NEW −1.62 · −185	−15.4 pp+15.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 50.4% / NEW 49.6%GRE insufficientNEW weak	—
  Total	O 44.5 @ −110U 44.5 @ −110	O 45.94 · −118U 45.94 · +118	+4.2 pp−4.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLGRE −192→model GRE +121−17.9 pp
    NEW +160→model NEW −121+17.9 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 63.1% / NEW 36.9%GRE insufficientNEW weak
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadGRE −3.5 @ −112→model GRE +1.62 · +185−15.4 pp
    NEW +3.5 @ −108→model NEW −1.62 · −185+15.4 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 50.4% / NEW 49.6%GRE insufficientNEW weak
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 44.5 @ −110→model O 45.94 · −118+4.2 pp
    U 44.5 @ −110→model U 45.94 · +118−4.2 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore RavensSun 5:00 PM

  NEW

  New Orleans Saints

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 7th-hardest·Away0-1-100.0%

  ATS1-0+90.9%·Away1-0+90.9%

  O/U1-0+89.3%·Away1-0+89.3%

  DOGML 0-1ATS 1-0

  Proj22.0

  Win26

  BAL

  Baltimore Ravens

  ML1-0+57.1%SOS 9th-hardest

  ATS1-0+100.0%

  O/U1-0+87.0%

  FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

  Proj30.6

  Win74

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	NEW +295BAL −375	NEW +286BAL −286	+1.7 pp−1.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 24.3% / BAL 75.7%NEW insufficientBAL insufficient	—
  Spread	NEW +8.5 @ −115BAL −8.5 @ −105	NEW +8.57 · +101BAL −8.57 · −101	−1.3 pp+1.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 51.1% / BAL 48.9%NEW insufficientBAL insufficient	—
  Total	O 45.5 @ −110U 45.5 @ −110	O 52.63 · −232U 52.63 · +232	+19.9 pp−19.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLNEW +295→model NEW +286+1.7 pp
    BAL −375→model BAL −286−1.7 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 24.3% / BAL 75.7%NEW insufficientBAL insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadNEW +8.5 @ −115→model NEW +8.57 · +101−1.3 pp
    BAL −8.5 @ −105→model BAL −8.57 · −101+1.3 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 51.1% / BAL 48.9%NEW insufficientBAL insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 45.5 @ −110→model O 52.63 · −232+19.9 pp
    U 45.5 @ −110→model U 52.63 · +232−19.9 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee TitansSun 5:00 PM

  PHI

  Philadelphia Eagles

  ML1-0+38.8%SOS 27th-hardest

  ATS0-1-100.0%

  O/U1-0+95.2%

  FAVML 1-0ATS 0-1

  Proj23.8

  Win64

  TEN

  Tennessee Titans

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 32nd-hardest·Home0-1-100.0%

  ATS0-1-100.0%·Home0-1-100.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%·Home0-1-100.0%

  Proj18.9

  Win36

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	PHI −325TEN +260	PHI −181TEN +181	−8.9 pp+8.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 73.4% / TEN 26.6%PHI insufficientTEN weak	—
  Spread	PHI −7 @ −118TEN +7 @ −102	PHI −4.92 · +128TEN +4.92 · −128	−7.9 pp+7.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 51.7% / TEN 48.3%PHI insufficientTEN weak	—
  Total	O 39.5 @ −112U 39.5 @ −108	O 42.64 · −144U 42.64 · +144	+8.6 pp−8.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLPHI −325→model PHI −181−8.9 pp
    TEN +260→model TEN +181+8.9 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 73.4% / TEN 26.6%PHI insufficientTEN weak
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadPHI −7 @ −118→model PHI −4.92 · +128−7.9 pp
    TEN +7 @ −102→model TEN +4.92 · −128+7.9 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book PHI 51.7% / TEN 48.3%PHI insufficientTEN weak
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 39.5 @ −112→model O 42.64 · −144+8.6 pp
    U 39.5 @ −108→model U 42.64 · +144−8.6 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta FalconsSun 5:00 PM

  CAR

  Carolina Panthers

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 16th-hardest

  ATS0-1-100.0%

  O/U1-0+90.9%

  Proj23.5

  Win39

  ATL

  Atlanta Falcons

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 19th-hardest

  ATS0-1-100.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

  Proj27.2

  Win61

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	CAR −155ATL +130	CAR +156ATL −156	−19.2 pp+19.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CAR 58.3% / ATL 41.7%CAR insufficientATL weak	—
  Spread	CAR −2.5 @ −120ATL +2.5 @ +100	CAR +3.69 · +211ATL −3.69 · −211	−20.0 pp+20.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CAR 52.2% / ATL 47.8%CAR insufficientATL weak	—
  Total	O 43.5 @ −110U 43.5 @ −110	O 50.69 · −233U 50.69 · +233	+20.0 pp−20.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLCAR −155→model CAR +156−19.2 pp
    ATL +130→model ATL −156+19.2 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CAR 58.3% / ATL 41.7%CAR insufficientATL weak
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadCAR −2.5 @ −120→model CAR +3.69 · +211−20.0 pp
    ATL +2.5 @ +100→model ATL −3.69 · −211+20.0 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CAR 52.2% / ATL 47.8%CAR insufficientATL weak
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 43.5 @ −110→model O 50.69 · −233+20.0 pp
    U 43.5 @ −110→model U 50.69 · +233−20.0 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles ChargersSun 8:05 PM

  LAS

  Las Vegas Raiders

  ML1-0+57.1%SOS 24th-hardest

  ATS1-0+87.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  Proj21.6

  Win56

  LOS

  Los Angeles Chargers

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 29th-hardest·Home0-1-100.0%

  ATS0-1-100.0%·Home0-1-100.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%·Home0-1-100.0%

  FAVML 0-1ATS 0-1

  Proj19.7

  Win44

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	LAS +250LOS −310	LAS −125LOS +125	+28.1 pp−28.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 27.4% / LOS 72.6%LAS weakLOS insufficient	—
  Spread	LAS +6.5 @ +102LOS −6.5 @ −122	LAS −1.86 · −276LOS +1.86 · +276	+26.0 pp−26.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 47.4% / LOS 52.6%LAS weakLOS insufficient	—
  Total	O 43.5 @ −110U 43.5 @ −110	O 41.34 · +129U 41.34 · −129	−6.3 pp+6.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O insufficientU weak	—

  • MLLAS +250→model LAS −125+28.1 pp
    LOS −310→model LOS +125−28.1 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 27.4% / LOS 72.6%LAS weakLOS insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadLAS +6.5 @ +102→model LAS −1.86 · −276+26.0 pp
    LOS −6.5 @ −122→model LOS +1.86 · +276−26.0 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book LAS 47.4% / LOS 52.6%LAS weakLOS insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 43.5 @ −110→model O 41.34 · +129−6.3 pp
    U 43.5 @ −110→model U 41.34 · −129+6.3 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O insufficientU weak
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver BroncosSun 8:05 PM

  JAC

  Jacksonville Jaguars

  ML1-0+22.0%SOS 27th-hardest

  ATS1-0+89.3%

  O/U1-0+98.0%

  Proj28.1

  Win76

  DEN

  Denver Broncos

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 11th-hardest

  ATS0-1-100.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  Proj18.9

  Win24

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	JAC +124DEN −148	JAC −311DEN +311	+32.9 pp−32.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book JAC 42.8% / DEN 57.2%JAC weakDEN insufficient	—
  Spread	JAC +2.5 @ +100DEN −2.5 @ −120	JAC −9.24 · −427DEN +9.24 · +427	+33.2 pp−33.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book JAC 47.8% / DEN 52.2%JAC weakDEN insufficient	—
  Total	O 45.5 @ −110U 45.5 @ −110	O 47.02 · −119U 47.02 · +119	+4.4 pp−4.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLJAC +124→model JAC −311+32.9 pp
    DEN −148→model DEN +311−32.9 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book JAC 42.8% / DEN 57.2%JAC weakDEN insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadJAC +2.5 @ +100→model JAC −9.24 · −427+33.2 pp
    DEN −2.5 @ −120→model DEN +9.24 · +427−33.2 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book JAC 47.8% / DEN 52.2%JAC weakDEN insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 45.5 @ −110→model O 47.02 · −119+4.4 pp
    U 45.5 @ −110→model U 47.02 · +119−4.4 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona CardinalsSun 8:25 PM

  SEA

  Seattle Seahawks

  ML1-0+60.2%SOS 2nd-hardest

  ATS0-0-10.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  FAVML 1-0ATS 0-0-1

  Proj22.9

  Win55

  ARI

  Arizona Cardinals

  ML1-0+390.0%SOS 18th-hardest

  ATS1-0+95.2%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  DOGML 1-0ATS 1-0

  Proj21.1

  Win45

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	SEA −205ARI +170	SEA −124ARI +124	−9.1 pp+9.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SEA 64.5% / ARI 35.5%SEA insufficientARI weak	—
  Spread	SEA −3.5 @ −120ARI +3.5 @ +100	SEA −1.8 · +123ARI +1.8 · −123	−7.2 pp+7.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SEA 52.2% / ARI 47.8%SEA insufficientARI weak	—
  Total	O 40.5 @ −118U 40.5 @ −102	O 43.98 · −150U 43.98 · +150	+8.3 pp−8.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLSEA −205→model SEA −124−9.1 pp
    ARI +170→model ARI +124+9.1 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SEA 64.5% / ARI 35.5%SEA insufficientARI weak
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadSEA −3.5 @ −120→model SEA −1.8 · +123−7.2 pp
    ARI +3.5 @ +100→model ARI +1.8 · −123+7.2 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SEA 52.2% / ARI 47.8%SEA insufficientARI weak
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 40.5 @ −118→model O 43.98 · −150+8.3 pp
    U 40.5 @ −102→model U 43.98 · +150−8.3 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.7% / U 48.3%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Washington Commanders @ Dallas CowboysSun 8:25 PM

  WAS

  Washington Commanders

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 10th-hardest·Away0-1-100.0%

  ATS1-0+90.9%·Away1-0+90.9%

  O/U1-0+95.2%·Away1-0+95.2%

  DOGML 0-1ATS 1-0

  Proj24.4

  Win45

  DAL

  Dallas Cowboys

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 23rd-hardest

  ATS0-1-100.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  FAVML 0-1ATS 0-1

  Proj26.2

  Win55

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	WAS +180DAL −218	WAS +124DAL −124	+10.4 pp−10.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book WAS 34.3% / DAL 65.8%WAS weakDAL insufficient	—
  Spread	WAS +3.5 @ +100DAL −3.5 @ −120	WAS +1.77 · −123DAL −1.77 · +123	+7.3 pp−7.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book WAS 47.8% / DAL 52.2%WAS weakDAL insufficient	—
  Total	O 50.5 @ −120U 50.5 @ +100	O 50.55 · −101U 50.55 · +101	−2.0 pp+2.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 52.2% / U 47.8%O insufficientU insufficient	—

  • MLWAS +180→model WAS +124+10.4 pp
    DAL −218→model DAL −124−10.4 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book WAS 34.3% / DAL 65.8%WAS weakDAL insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadWAS +3.5 @ +100→model WAS +1.77 · −123+7.3 pp
    DAL −3.5 @ −120→model DAL −1.77 · +123−7.3 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book WAS 47.8% / DAL 52.2%WAS weakDAL insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 50.5 @ −120→model O 50.55 · −101−2.0 pp
    U 50.5 @ +100→model U 50.55 · +101+2.0 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 52.2% / U 47.8%O insufficientU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ersSun 8:25 PM

  MIA

  Miami Dolphins

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 32nd-hardest·Away0-1-100.0%

  ATS0-1-100.0%·Away0-1-100.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%·Away0-1-100.0%

  DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

  Proj16.1

  Win20

  SAN

  San Francisco 49ers

  ML1-0+164.0%SOS 1st-hardest

  ATS1-0+98.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  Proj27.3

  Win80

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	MIA +625SAN −950	MIA +398SAN −398	+6.8 pp−6.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 13.2% / SAN 86.8%MIA weakSAN insufficient	—
  Spread	MIA +13.5 @ −110SAN −13.5 @ −110	MIA +11.15 · −133SAN −11.15 · +133	+7.0 pp−7.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 50.0% / SAN 50.0%MIA weakSAN insufficient	—
  Total	O 44.5 @ −115U 44.5 @ −105	O 43.45 · +113U 43.45 · −113	−4.1 pp+4.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU insufficient	—

  • MLMIA +625→model MIA +398+6.8 pp
    SAN −950→model SAN −398−6.8 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 13.2% / SAN 86.8%MIA weakSAN insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadMIA +13.5 @ −110→model MIA +11.15 · −133+7.0 pp
    SAN −13.5 @ −110→model SAN −11.15 · +133−7.0 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 50.0% / SAN 50.0%MIA weakSAN insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 44.5 @ −115→model O 43.45 · +113−4.1 pp
    U 44.5 @ −105→model U 43.45 · −113+4.1 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O insufficientU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City ChiefsMon 12:20 AM

  IND

  Indianapolis Colts

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 13th-hardest

  ATS0-1-100.0%

  O/U1-0+87.0%

  DOGML 0-1ATS 0-1

  Proj20.3

  Win24

  KAN

  Kansas City Chiefs

  ML1-0+76.9%SOS 5th-hardest·Home1-0+76.9%

  ATS1-0+92.6%·Home1-0+92.6%

  O/U0-1-100.0%·Home0-1-100.0%

  FAVML 1-0ATS 1-0

  Proj29.4

  Win76

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	IND +215KAN −265	IND +308KAN −308	−5.9 pp+5.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 30.4% / KAN 69.6%IND insufficientKAN weak	—
  Spread	IND +6 @ −112KAN −6 @ −108	IND +9.18 · +146KAN −9.18 · −146	−9.8 pp+9.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 50.4% / KAN 49.6%IND insufficientKAN weak	—
  Total	O 46.5 @ −102U 46.5 @ −118	O 49.72 · −146U 49.72 · +146	+11.0 pp−11.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.3% / U 51.7%O weakU insufficient	—

  • MLIND +215→model IND +308−5.9 pp
    KAN −265→model KAN −308+5.9 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 30.4% / KAN 69.6%IND insufficientKAN weak
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadIND +6 @ −112→model IND +9.18 · +146−9.8 pp
    KAN −6 @ −108→model KAN −9.18 · −146+9.8 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book IND 50.4% / KAN 49.6%IND insufficientKAN weak
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 46.5 @ −102→model O 49.72 · −146+11.0 pp
    U 46.5 @ −118→model U 49.72 · +146−11.0 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.3% / U 51.7%O weakU insufficient
    insufficientage —

  Open game →
• New York Giants @ Los Angeles RamsTue 12:15 AM

  NEW

  New York Giants

  ML1-0+136.0%SOS 22nd-hardest

  ATS1-0+87.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%

  DOGML 1-0ATS 1-0

  Proj22.8

  Win51

  LOS

  Los Angeles Rams

  ML0-1-100.0%SOS 11th-hardest·Home0-1-100.0%

  ATS0-1-100.0%·Home0-1-100.0%

  O/U0-1-100.0%·Home0-1-100.0%

  FAVML 0-1ATS 0-1

  Proj22.5

  Win49

  Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
  ML	NEW +240LOS −298	NEW −104LOS +104	+22.7 pp−22.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 28.2% / LOS 71.8%NEW weakLOS insufficient	—
  Spread	NEW +6.5 @ −105LOS −6.5 @ −115	NEW −0.31 · −228LOS +0.31 · +228	+20.6 pp−20.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 48.9% / LOS 51.1%NEW weakLOS insufficient	—
  Total	O 47.5 @ −110U 47.5 @ −110	O 45.25 · +130U 45.25 · −130	−6.5 pp+6.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O insufficientU weak	—

  • MLNEW +240→model NEW −104+22.7 pp
    LOS −298→model LOS +104−22.7 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 28.2% / LOS 71.8%NEW weakLOS insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • SpreadNEW +6.5 @ −105→model NEW −0.31 · −228+20.6 pp
    LOS −6.5 @ −115→model LOS +0.31 · +228−20.6 pp
    σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 48.9% / LOS 51.1%NEW weakLOS insufficient
    insufficientage —
  • TotalO 47.5 @ −110→model O 45.25 · +130−6.5 pp
    U 47.5 @ −110→model U 45.25 · −130+6.5 pp
    σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O insufficientU weak
    insufficientage —

  Open game →