2026 · Week 1›

NFL · Week 1

16 gamesupdated just now

Season picks

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No validated markets here: every row below is experimental or insufficient.

New England Patriots @ Seattle SeahawksThu 12:20 AM

New England Patriots

ML17-4+23.9%Away9-0+44.1%

ATS14-7+27.0%Away7-2+47.0%

O/U12-9+9.7%Away5-4+6.2%

DOGML 4-3ATS 4-3

Proj22.8

Win39

Seattle Seahawks

ML17-3+22.0%Home8-2+14.1%

ATS15-5+44.0%Home6-4+15.0%

O/U11-9+5.4%Home7-3+34.5%

FAVML 16-1ATS 13-4

Proj26.7

Win62

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	NEW +140SEA −166	NEW +160SEA −160	−1.5 pp+1.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 40.0% / SEA 60.0%NEW insufficientSEA insufficient	—
Spread	NEW +3 @ −102SEA −3 @ −118	NEW +3.89 · +111SEA −3.89 · −111	−0.9 pp+0.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 48.3% / SEA 51.7%NEW insufficientSEA insufficient	—
Total	O 44.5 @ −105U 44.5 @ −115	O 49.51 · −180U 49.51 · +180	+15.4 pp−15.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	—

MLNEW +140model NEW +160−1.5 pp
SEA −166model SEA −160+1.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 40.0% / SEA 60.0%NEW insufficientSEA insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadNEW +3 @ −102model NEW +3.89 · +111−0.9 pp
SEA −3 @ −118model SEA −3.89 · −111+0.9 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 48.3% / SEA 51.7%NEW insufficientSEA insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 44.5 @ −105model O 49.51 · −180+15.4 pp
U 44.5 @ −115model U 49.51 · +180−15.4 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles RamsFri 12:35 AM

San Francisco 49ers

ML13-6+25.4%Away8-3+51.8%

ATS12-7+20.6%Away8-3+37.6%

O/U11-8+11.1%Away7-4+22.2%

DOGML 2-5ATS 2-5

Proj23.8

Win37

Los Angeles Rams

ML14-6-4.1%Home7-1+5.9%

ATS12-8+13.5%Home6-2+41.3%

O/U13-7+23.0%Home4-4-5.8%

FAVML 14-3ATS 11-6

Proj28.2

Win63

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	SAN +164LOS −198	SAN +170LOS −170	+0.7 pp−0.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SAN 36.3% / LOS 63.7%SAN insufficientLOS insufficient	—
Spread	SAN +3.5 @ −102LOS −3.5 @ −118	SAN +4.41 · +111LOS −4.41 · −111	−1.0 pp+1.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SAN 48.3% / LOS 51.7%SAN insufficientLOS insufficient	—
Total	O 48.5 @ −108U 48.5 @ −112	O 52.03 · −151U 52.03 · +151	+10.6 pp−10.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient	—

MLSAN +164model SAN +170+0.7 pp
LOS −198model LOS −170−0.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SAN 36.3% / LOS 63.7%SAN insufficientLOS insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadSAN +3.5 @ −102model SAN +4.41 · +111−1.0 pp
LOS −3.5 @ −118model LOS −4.41 · −111+1.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book SAN 48.3% / LOS 51.7%SAN insufficientLOS insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 48.5 @ −108model O 52.03 · −151+10.6 pp
U 48.5 @ −112model U 52.03 · +151−10.6 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Chicago Bears @ Carolina PanthersSun 5:00 PM

Chicago Bears

ML12-7+27.0%Away5-4+42.6%

ATS12-7+19.9%Away5-4+5.1%

O/U9-10-9.8%Away6-3+27.3%

FAVML 6-1ATS 5-2

Proj23.8

Win57

Carolina Panthers

ML8-10+36.0%Home5-4+43.9%

ATS11-7+16.5%Home6-3+27.3%

O/U8-10-15.7%Home5-4+5.9%

DOGML 7-8ATS 10-5

Proj21.5

Win43

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	CHI −175CAR +145	CHI −131CAR +131	−4.1 pp+4.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CHI 60.9% / CAR 39.1%CHI insufficientCAR weak	—
Spread	CHI −3 @ −120CAR +3 @ +100	CHI −2.27 · +109CAR +2.27 · −109	−4.3 pp+4.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CHI 52.2% / CAR 47.8%CHI insufficientCAR weak	—
Total	O 47.5 @ −110U 47.5 @ −110	O 45.31 · +129U 45.31 · −129	−6.3 pp+6.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O insufficientU weak	—

MLCHI −175model CHI −131−4.1 pp
CAR +145model CAR +131+4.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CHI 60.9% / CAR 39.1%CHI insufficientCAR weak
insufficientage —
SpreadCHI −3 @ −120model CHI −2.27 · +109−4.3 pp
CAR +3 @ +100model CAR +2.27 · −109+4.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CHI 52.2% / CAR 47.8%CHI insufficientCAR weak
insufficientage —
TotalO 47.5 @ −110model O 45.31 · +129−6.3 pp
U 47.5 @ −110model U 45.31 · −129+6.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O insufficientU weak
insufficientage —

Open game

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh SteelersSun 5:00 PM

Atlanta Falcons

ML8-9-9.9%Away4-5-10.6%

ATS9-8+1.9%Away6-3+28.0%

O/U8-9-10.2%Away4-5-13.1%

DOGML 5-5ATS 7-3

Proj21.5

Win42

Pittsburgh Steelers

ML10-8+11.2%Home6-4+16.6%

ATS9-9-5.3%Home6-4+14.2%

O/U10-8+5.3%Home5-5-6.7%

FAVML 5-3ATS 4-4

Proj24.2

Win58

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	ATL +230PIT −285	ATL +138PIT −138	+13.0 pp−13.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 29.0% / PIT 71.0%ATL weakPIT insufficient	—
Spread	ATL +6.5 @ −110PIT −6.5 @ −110	ATL +2.67 · −158PIT −2.67 · +158	+11.3 pp−11.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 50.0% / PIT 50.0%ATL weakPIT insufficient	—
Total	O 40.5 @ −112U 40.5 @ −108	O 45.75 · −185U 45.75 · +185	+14.5 pp−14.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	—

MLATL +230model ATL +138+13.0 pp
PIT −285model PIT −138−13.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 29.0% / PIT 71.0%ATL weakPIT insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadATL +6.5 @ −110model ATL +2.67 · −158+11.3 pp
PIT −6.5 @ −110model PIT −2.67 · +158−11.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ATL 50.0% / PIT 50.0%ATL weakPIT insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 40.5 @ −112model O 45.75 · −185+14.5 pp
U 40.5 @ −108model U 45.75 · +185−14.5 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis ColtsSun 5:00 PM

Baltimore Ravens

ML8-9-17.8%Away5-3+3.6%

ATS6-11-31.9%Away4-4-4.9%

O/U11-6+22.1%Away5-3+18.7%

FAVML 7-7ATS 5-9

Proj25.7

Win48

Indianapolis Colts

ML8-9-5.9%Home6-3+7.7%

ATS9-8+0.9%Home4-5-15.6%

O/U9-8+0.3%Home5-4+5.9%

DOGML 2-6ATS 5-3

Proj26.4

Win52

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	BAL −175IND +145	BAL +108IND −108	−12.9 pp+12.9 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 60.9% / IND 39.1%BAL insufficientIND weak	—
Spread	BAL −3.5 @ +100IND +3.5 @ −120	BAL +0.68 · +165IND −0.68 · −165	−10.1 pp+10.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 47.8% / IND 52.2%BAL insufficientIND weak	—
Total	O 47.5 @ −115U 47.5 @ −105	O 52.1 · −171U 52.1 · +171	+12.1 pp−12.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient	—

MLBAL −175model BAL +108−12.9 pp
IND +145model IND −108+12.9 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 60.9% / IND 39.1%BAL insufficientIND weak
insufficientage —
SpreadBAL −3.5 @ +100model BAL +0.68 · +165−10.1 pp
IND +3.5 @ −120model IND −0.68 · −165+10.1 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BAL 47.8% / IND 52.2%BAL insufficientIND weak
insufficientage —
TotalO 47.5 @ −115model O 52.1 · −171+12.1 pp
U 47.5 @ −105model U 52.1 · +171−12.1 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 51.1% / U 48.9%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Buffalo Bills @ Houston TexansSun 5:00 PM

Buffalo Bills

ML13-6-6.0%Away6-4-18.9%

ATS9-10-9.8%Away5-5-4.9%

O/U10-9-0.4%Away4-6-24.6%

FAVML 11-5ATS 7-9

Proj24.0

Win50

Houston Texans

ML13-6+18.4%Home7-2+16.5%

ATS10-9+0.8%Home5-4+6.2%

O/U7-12-29.6%Home4-5-14.6%

DOGML 5-4ATS 5-4

Proj23.9

Win50

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	BUF −112HOU −108	BUF −101HOU +101	−0.2 pp+0.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BUF 50.4% / HOU 49.6%BUF insufficientHOU insufficient	—
Spread	BUF −1.5 @ −108HOU +1.5 @ −112	BUF −0.09 · +118HOU +0.09 · −118	−3.8 pp+3.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BUF 49.6% / HOU 50.4%BUF insufficientHOU insufficient	—
Total	O 44.5 @ −110U 44.5 @ −110	O 47.97 · −150U 47.97 · +150	+10.0 pp−10.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient	—

MLBUF −112model BUF −101−0.2 pp
HOU −108model HOU +101+0.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BUF 50.4% / HOU 49.6%BUF insufficientHOU insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadBUF −1.5 @ −108model BUF −0.09 · +118−3.8 pp
HOU +1.5 @ −112model HOU +0.09 · −118+3.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book BUF 49.6% / HOU 50.4%BUF insufficientHOU insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 44.5 @ −110model O 47.97 · −150+10.0 pp
U 44.5 @ −110model U 47.97 · +150−10.0 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.0% / U 50.0%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati BengalsSun 5:00 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ML8-9-26.2%Away4-5-18.7%

ATS5-12-43.6%Away4-5-14.3%

O/U8-9-10.9%Away2-7-58.2%

DOGML 2-4ATS 2-4

Proj24.8

Win50

Cincinnati Bengals

ML6-11-23.9%Home3-6-38.3%

ATS8-9-10.0%Home4-5-15.4%

O/U9-8+1.1%Home5-4+6.4%

FAVML 4-2ATS 3-3

Proj24.9

Win50

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	TAM +170CIN −205	TAM +101CIN −101	+14.2 pp−14.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TAM 35.5% / CIN 64.5%TAM weakCIN insufficient	—
Spread	TAM +3.5 @ −102CIN −3.5 @ −118	TAM +0.1 · −150CIN −0.1 · +150	+11.8 pp−11.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TAM 48.3% / CIN 51.7%TAM weakCIN insufficient	—
Total	O 50.5 @ −108U 50.5 @ −112	O 49.76 · +109U 49.76 · −109	−1.7 pp+1.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLTAM +170model TAM +101+14.2 pp
CIN −205model CIN −101−14.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TAM 35.5% / CIN 64.5%TAM weakCIN insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadTAM +3.5 @ −102model TAM +0.1 · −150+11.8 pp
CIN −3.5 @ −118model CIN −0.1 · +150−11.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book TAM 48.3% / CIN 51.7%TAM weakCIN insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 50.5 @ −108model O 49.76 · +109−1.7 pp
U 50.5 @ −112model U 49.76 · −109+1.7 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

New York Jets @ Tennessee TitansSun 5:00 PM

New York Jets

ML3-14-54.8%Away1-7-60.0%

ATS7-10-21.4%Away3-5-27.9%

O/U11-6+22.2%Away5-3+18.1%

DOGML 3-14ATS 7-10

Proj20.9

Win45

Tennessee Titans

ML3-14-44.0%Home1-8-73.1%

ATS7-10-21.3%Home4-5-14.9%

O/U11-6+24.3%Home6-3+29.2%

Proj22.6

Win55

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	NEW −102TEN −118	NEW +122TEN −122	−3.2 pp+3.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 48.3% / TEN 51.7%NEW insufficientTEN insufficient	—
Spread	NEW +1.5 @ −115TEN −1.5 @ −105	NEW +1.65 · +102TEN −1.65 · −102	−1.5 pp+1.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 51.1% / TEN 48.9%NEW insufficientTEN insufficient	—
Total	O 38.5 @ −112U 38.5 @ −108	O 43.49 · −179U 43.49 · +179	+13.8 pp−13.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient	—

MLNEW −102model NEW +122−3.2 pp
TEN −118model TEN −122+3.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 48.3% / TEN 51.7%NEW insufficientTEN insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadNEW +1.5 @ −115model NEW +1.65 · +102−1.5 pp
TEN −1.5 @ −105model TEN −1.65 · −102+1.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 51.1% / TEN 48.9%NEW insufficientTEN insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 38.5 @ −112model O 43.49 · −179+13.8 pp
U 38.5 @ −108model U 43.49 · +179−13.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville JaguarsSun 5:00 PM

Cleveland Browns

ML5-12-12.1%Away2-6-19.9%

ATS8-9-9.7%Away2-6-52.5%

O/U8-9-10.5%Away3-5-29.3%

DOGML 4-10ATS 7-7

Proj18.0

Win23

Jacksonville Jaguars

ML13-5+24.5%Home7-3+17.5%

ATS12-6+27.3%Home7-3+32.2%

O/U10-8+5.7%Home4-6-24.2%

FAVML 8-1ATS 7-2

Proj27.6

Win77

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	CLE +350JAC −455	CLE +328JAC −328	+2.0 pp−2.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 21.3% / JAC 78.7%CLE insufficientJAC insufficient	—
Spread	CLE +8.5 @ −108JAC −8.5 @ −112	CLE +9.66 · +115JAC −9.66 · −115	−3.0 pp+3.0 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 49.6% / JAC 50.4%CLE insufficientJAC insufficient	—
Total	O 40.5 @ −102U 40.5 @ −118	O 45.64 · −182U 45.64 · +182	+16.3 pp−16.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.3% / U 51.7%O weakU insufficient	—

MLCLE +350model CLE +328+2.0 pp
JAC −455model JAC −328−2.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 21.3% / JAC 78.7%CLE insufficientJAC insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadCLE +8.5 @ −108model CLE +9.66 · +115−3.0 pp
JAC −8.5 @ −112model JAC −9.66 · −115+3.0 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book CLE 49.6% / JAC 50.4%CLE insufficientJAC insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 40.5 @ −102model O 45.64 · −182+16.3 pp
U 40.5 @ −118model U 45.64 · +182−16.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.3% / U 51.7%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

New Orleans Saints @ Detroit LionsSun 5:00 PM

New Orleans Saints

ML6-11-7.0%Away3-6+6.5%

ATS9-8+1.4%Away6-3+28.6%

O/U6-11-32.3%Away5-4+5.9%

DOGML 3-10ATS 6-7

Proj20.6

Win31

Detroit Lions

ML9-8-13.8%Home5-3-15.7%

ATS8-9-9.0%Home4-4-4.5%

O/U10-7+12.9%Home6-2+42.9%

FAVML 7-4ATS 6-5

Proj27.1

Win69

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	NEW +260DET −325	NEW +220DET −220	+4.6 pp−4.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 26.7% / DET 73.4%NEW weakDET insufficient	—
Spread	NEW +7 @ −110DET −7 @ −110	NEW +6.51 · −106DET −6.51 · +106	+1.5 pp−1.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 50.0% / DET 50.0%NEW insufficientDET insufficient	—
Total	O 49.5 @ −112U 49.5 @ −108	O 47.79 · +122U 47.79 · −122	−5.4 pp+5.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLNEW +260model NEW +220+4.6 pp
DET −325model DET −220−4.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 26.7% / DET 73.4%NEW weakDET insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadNEW +7 @ −110model NEW +6.51 · −106+1.5 pp
DET −7 @ −110model DET −6.51 · +106−1.5 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book NEW 50.0% / DET 50.0%NEW insufficientDET insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 49.5 @ −112model O 47.79 · +122−5.4 pp
U 49.5 @ −108model U 47.79 · −122+5.4 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 50.4% / U 49.6%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia EaglesSun 8:25 PM

Washington Commanders

ML5-12-37.2%Away3-6-24.8%

ATS6-10-1-26.2%Away3-6-35.3%

O/U10-7+12.7%Away4-5-14.5%

DOGML 3-10ATS 4-8-1

Proj20.1

Win34

Philadelphia Eagles

ML11-7-11.1%Home5-4-15.6%

ATS10-8+6.2%Home4-5-14.8%

O/U7-11-26.4%Home3-6-36.0%

FAVML 9-7ATS 8-8

Proj25.7

Win66

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	WAS +210PHI −258	WAS +196PHI −196	+2.8 pp−2.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book WAS 30.9% / PHI 69.1%WAS insufficientPHI insufficient	—
Spread	WAS +6 @ −110PHI −6 @ −110	WAS +5.58 · −105PHI −5.58 · +105	+1.3 pp−1.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book WAS 50.0% / PHI 50.0%WAS insufficientPHI insufficient	—
Total	O 44.5 @ −105U 44.5 @ −115	O 45.76 · −116U 45.76 · +116	+4.8 pp−4.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	—

MLWAS +210model WAS +196+2.8 pp
PHI −258model PHI −196−2.8 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book WAS 30.9% / PHI 69.1%WAS insufficientPHI insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadWAS +6 @ −110model WAS +5.58 · −105+1.3 pp
PHI −6 @ −110model PHI −5.58 · +105−1.3 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book WAS 50.0% / PHI 50.0%WAS insufficientPHI insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 44.5 @ −105model O 45.76 · −116+4.8 pp
U 44.5 @ −115model U 45.76 · +116−4.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles ChargersSun 8:25 PM

Arizona Cardinals

ML3-14-56.6%Away2-7-41.0%

ATS6-11-33.0%Away5-4+4.4%

O/U10-7+12.8%Away4-5-15.0%

DOGML 1-13ATS 5-9

Proj19.8

Win35

Los Angeles Chargers

ML11-7+6.2%Home6-3+14.9%

ATS9-9-4.2%Home6-3+26.1%

O/U7-11-25.8%Home4-5-14.8%

FAVML 7-5ATS 5-7

Proj25.0

Win65

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	ARI +390LOS −520	ARI +188LOS −188	+15.2 pp−15.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 19.6% / LOS 80.4%ARI weakLOS insufficient	—
Spread	ARI +9.5 @ −105LOS −9.5 @ −115	ARI +5.21 · −167LOS −5.21 · +167	+13.7 pp−13.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 48.9% / LOS 51.1%ARI weakLOS insufficient	—
Total	O 47.5 @ −105U 47.5 @ −115	O 44.83 · +137U 44.83 · −137	−6.7 pp+6.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU weak	—

MLARI +390model ARI +188+15.2 pp
LOS −520model LOS −188−15.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 19.6% / LOS 80.4%ARI weakLOS insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadARI +9.5 @ −105model ARI +5.21 · −167+13.7 pp
LOS −9.5 @ −115model LOS −5.21 · +167−13.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book ARI 48.9% / LOS 51.1%ARI weakLOS insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 47.5 @ −105model O 44.83 · +137−6.7 pp
U 47.5 @ −115model U 44.83 · −137+6.7 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU weak
insufficientage —

Open game

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota VikingsSun 8:25 PM

Green Bay Packers

ML9-8-22.6%Away4-5-21.8%

ATS6-11-1-30.3%Away2-7-1-52.0%

O/U10-8+6.4%Away7-3+32.8%

DOGML 1-2ATS 1-2

Proj21.2

Win48

Minnesota Vikings

ML9-8+19.6%Home4-4+4.1%

ATS9-8+2.6%Home4-4-2.3%

O/U8-9-9.3%Home2-6-51.6%

FAVML 5-3ATS 5-3

Proj21.7

Win52

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	GRE +110MIN −130	GRE +107MIN −107	+2.6 pp−2.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 45.7% / MIN 54.3%GRE insufficientMIN insufficient	—
Spread	GRE +2.5 @ −115MIN −2.5 @ −105	GRE +0.56 · −126MIN −0.56 · +126	+4.7 pp−4.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 51.1% / MIN 48.9%GRE weakMIN insufficient	—
Total	O 46.5 @ −105U 46.5 @ −115	O 42.88 · +153U 42.88 · −153	−9.3 pp+9.3 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLGRE +110model GRE +107+2.6 pp
MIN −130model MIN −107−2.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 45.7% / MIN 54.3%GRE insufficientMIN insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadGRE +2.5 @ −115model GRE +0.56 · −126+4.7 pp
MIN −2.5 @ −105model MIN −0.56 · +126−4.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book GRE 51.1% / MIN 48.9%GRE weakMIN insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 46.5 @ −105model O 42.88 · +153−9.3 pp
U 46.5 @ −115model U 42.88 · −153+9.3 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas RaidersSun 8:25 PM

Miami Dolphins

ML7-10+12.3%Away2-6-26.4%

ATS8-9-10.5%Away3-5-29.6%

O/U10-7+13.3%Away6-2+44.7%

DOGML 3-8ATS 5-6

Proj22.3

Win57

Las Vegas Raiders

ML3-14-56.7%Home2-7-46.2%

ATS7-10-20.4%Home4-5-15.3%

O/U7-10-21.9%Home4-5-15.3%

FAVML 1-2ATS 1-2

Proj20.1

Win43

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	MIA +145LAS −175	MIA −131LAS +131	+17.6 pp−17.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 39.1% / LAS 60.9%MIA weakLAS insufficient	—
Spread	MIA +3 @ −105LAS −3 @ −115	MIA −2.25 · −188LAS +2.25 · +188	+16.4 pp−16.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 48.9% / LAS 51.1%MIA weakLAS insufficient	—
Total	O 40.5 @ −105U 40.5 @ −115	O 42.35 · −124U 42.35 · +124	+6.5 pp−6.5 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	—

MLMIA +145model MIA −131+17.6 pp
LAS −175model LAS +131−17.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 39.1% / LAS 60.9%MIA weakLAS insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadMIA +3 @ −105model MIA −2.25 · −188+16.4 pp
LAS −3 @ −115model LAS +2.25 · +188−16.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book MIA 48.9% / LAS 51.1%MIA weakLAS insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 40.5 @ −105model O 42.35 · −124+6.5 pp
U 40.5 @ −115model U 42.35 · +124−6.5 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Dallas Cowboys @ New York GiantsMon 12:20 AM

Dallas Cowboys

ML7-9-20.1%Away3-6-31.5%

ATS7-9-1-17.1%Away3-5-1-27.5%

O/U12-5+33.0%Away6-3+25.8%

FAVML 5-6ATS 3-7-1

Proj26.0

Win52

New York Giants

ML4-13-31.4%Home3-5+16.0%

ATS8-8-1-5.0%Home3-4-1-15.8%

O/U11-6+23.7%Home5-3+19.4%

DOGML 3-12ATS 7-7-1

Proj25.5

Win48

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	DAL −162NEW +136	DAL −107NEW +107	−7.7 pp+7.7 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DAL 59.3% / NEW 40.7%DAL insufficientNEW weak	—
Spread	DAL −3 @ −105NEW +3 @ −115	DAL −0.54 · +134NEW +0.54 · −134	−6.2 pp+6.2 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DAL 48.9% / NEW 51.1%DAL insufficientNEW weak	—
Total	O 48.5 @ −105U 48.5 @ −115	O 51.52 · −142U 51.52 · +142	+9.8 pp−9.8 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient	—

MLDAL −162model DAL −107−7.7 pp
NEW +136model NEW +107+7.7 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DAL 59.3% / NEW 40.7%DAL insufficientNEW weak
insufficientage —
SpreadDAL −3 @ −105model DAL −0.54 · +134−6.2 pp
NEW +3 @ −115model NEW +0.54 · −134+6.2 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DAL 48.9% / NEW 51.1%DAL insufficientNEW weak
insufficientage —
TotalO 48.5 @ −105model O 51.52 · −142+9.8 pp
U 48.5 @ −115model U 51.52 · +142−9.8 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 48.9% / U 51.1%O weakU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City ChiefsTue 12:15 AM

Denver Broncos

ML15-4+17.8%Away6-2+16.4%

ATS9-10-8.4%Away2-6-50.3%

O/U8-11-19.1%Away3-5-28.1%

DOGML 4-2ATS 5-1

Proj21.1

Win46

Kansas City Chiefs

ML6-11-32.6%Home5-4-6.2%

ATS6-11-32.2%Home5-4+7.5%

O/U4-13-54.5%Home1-8-78.0%

FAVML 5-9ATS 4-10

Proj22.3

Win54

Market	Book	Model	Disagree	Status	Evidence	Age
ML	DEN +110KAN −130	DEN +116KAN −116	+0.6 pp−0.6 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 45.7% / KAN 54.3%DEN insufficientKAN insufficient	—
Spread	DEN +2.5 @ −112KAN −2.5 @ −108	DEN +1.23 · −116KAN −1.23 · +116	+3.4 pp−3.4 pp	insufficient	σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 50.4% / KAN 49.6%DEN insufficientKAN insufficient	—
Total	O 43.5 @ −108U 43.5 @ −112	O 43.37 · +101U 43.37 · −101	+0.1 pp−0.1 pp	insufficient	σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient	—

MLDEN +110model DEN +116+0.6 pp
KAN −130model KAN −116−0.6 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 45.7% / KAN 54.3%DEN insufficientKAN insufficient
insufficientage —
SpreadDEN +2.5 @ −112model DEN +1.23 · −116+3.4 pp
KAN −2.5 @ −108model KAN −1.23 · +116−3.4 pp
σ 13.3 · n 1420 · book DEN 50.4% / KAN 49.6%DEN insufficientKAN insufficient
insufficientage —
TotalO 43.5 @ −108model O 43.37 · +101+0.1 pp
U 43.5 @ −112model U 43.37 · −101−0.1 pp
σ 13.6 · n 1420 · book O 49.6% / U 50.4%O insufficientU insufficient
insufficientage —

Open game